The data layer Polymarket doesn’t give you.

Latest resolutions

• PoliticsResolved YES

  US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?

  On May 29, 2026, US Southern Command General Francis L. Donovan held a rare in-person military meeting with Cuban Army Corps General Roberto Legrá Sotolongo at the perimeter of Naval Station Guantanamo Bay—the first such senior-level face-to-face contact since Trump took office. The market had traded sideways at ~50¢ in the days prior; the news of this meeting, signaling a de-escalation and willingness to engage on official terms, drove the price from 50¢ to 98¢ (+48pp) on May 29 evening UTC, and it locked in at 100¢ by resolution on June 2.

  8h ago · $246k vol

• PoliticsResolved YES

  Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

  The May 25 US strikes on Iranian military sites (missile launch sites and boats) caused the ceasefire to hold, confirmed by Trump's approval of a 60-day memorandum of understanding by May 28. The market moved from 80¢ to 56¢ on May 22-23 as tensions peaked over enrichment disagreements and Israeli threats, then recovered from 56¢ to 90¢+ as Trump signaled ceasefire extension was imminent and finalized by month-end — the market front-ran the diplomatic progress.

  9h ago · $31.9M vol

• PoliticsResolved YES

  US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

  Announcement on May 29, 2026 (~20:00 EDT / May 30 00:00 UTC) of SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. Francis Donovan's rare in-person diplomatic meeting with Cuban military Gen. Roberto Legrá Sotolongo at Guantanamo Bay perimeter. The market had already begun rallying from 13¢ on May 29 22:00 UTC and surged +44pp to 56¢, then +26pp to 83¢ on May 30 00:00 UTC announcement, front-running and reacting to the news within minutes.

  10h ago · $2.3M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

  No candidate secured 50%+ in the first round. Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.74%, followed by Iván Cepeda at 40.90%, both well short of an absolute majority. The market had repriced this outcome by January 2026 (after settling to 16¢) and maintained a low price through May as the fragmented field became clear; the final price of 0¢ locked in on May 31 when official results confirmed no first-round winner.

  12h ago · $503k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

  Trump rejected sanctions relief for Iran on May 27, 2026, stating 'we're not talking about any easing of sanctions.' The market had spiked to 38¢ on May 23-24 after optimistic deal reports, then crashed back to 27¢ on May 24 as Trump's rejection became clear—it overshot deal prospects and then repriced to reality before bleeding to 0¢ by the May 31 deadline with no relief agreement finalized.

  20h ago · $819k vol

• PoliticsResolved YES

  Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?

  Election announced April 27 for May 30; early May polling showed Labour commanding 29,000-vote lead (53.1% vs 42.6%), triggering the market to jump from 66¢ to 94¢ on May 2 at 11:00 UTC (+28pp) — pricing in Abela's strong polling advantage. Labour won decisively on May 31, and Abela was formally confirmed as PM on June 1, resolving YES at 100¢.

  21h ago · $210k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?

  Alex Borg's margin to become Prime Minister was eliminated when early May polling (April 30-May 6, May 7-13) consistently showed Labour leading by 10.5pp—a threshold the Nationalist challenger could not close. The market repriced hard on May 2 (-48pp, 50¢→2¢) as the campaign began and this polling became public; Borg's subsequent rally to 16¢ on May 5 (+14pp) reflected brief tactical optimism, but a fresh May 7 poll confirming Labour's 10pp lead triggered a final collapse to 5¢ (-11pp) that locked in the NO outcome by May 30 election day.

  21h ago · $225k vol

• EconomicsResolved NO

  Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

  Powell confirmed on April 29 that he will remain a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after his chair term ends in May, definitively ruling out any departure by the May 30 deadline. The market had priced in uncertainty from the January DOJ investigation but collapsed from 42¢ to 8¢ on April 30 as the outcome became certain, then drifted to 0¢ by the May 30 resolution date.

  21h ago · $287k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

  Iran's May 23 announcement of western airspace closure initially spiked the price from 30¢ to 99¢ (+69pp) as traders believed it met the 'major closure' criteria, but the market rapidly repriced downward (99¢→26¢ over two days) once it became clear the closure was limited to the western sector with 8 airports still operational and daylight-only restrictions—failing to qualify as a 'broad' closure requiring suspension of at least two major airports. The price then drifted from 26¢ to 0¢ as the May 31 deadline neared with no qualifying closure materialized.

  22h ago · $8.6M vol

• Science & TechResolved NO

  Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?

  On May 20-21, Trump postponed then canceled a planned executive order establishing a voluntary federal review process for AI model releases. The market had spiked to 70¢ (+37pp to 23:00 UTC May 20) on reports the signing was imminent, then crashed 33pp to 48¢ within 8 hours of the announced cancellation on May 21—the market repriced hard as the decisive event (a qualifying federal review process) was explicitly taken off the table by Trump citing competitiveness concerns vs. China.

  22h ago · $160k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?

  Josh Simons resigned on May 14, 2026, triggering a Makerfield by-election intended to allow Burnham to return to Parliament and eventually step down as mayor. The market spiked +40pp to 55¢ on this news (14¢ → 55¢ at 17:00 UTC), anticipating Burnham would exit the mayoralty. However, Burnham did not immediately resign — he remained mayor while campaigning for the June 18 by-election. The market then collapsed from 55¢ to 14¢ over May 15 as traders recognized he was still in post by the May 31 deadline.

  22h ago · $133k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  James Comey charges dropped by May 31?

  The indictment unsealed April 28, 2026, was immediately repriced downward as legal analysts noted the 'true threat' standard in First Amendment case law is much higher than what an ambiguous Instagram post of '86 47' could satisfy. Comey's legal team signaled a vindictive prosecution defense on April 29, and by early May, sustained expert analysis (Washington Times, National Review, Freedom Forum, Cato) confirmed the prosecution faced monumental First Amendment hurdles. The market decayed from 57¢ (day 1) to 4¢ (day 4) as traders shifted from base-rate pricing (federal charges exist) to conviction-probability pricing (courts will likely dismiss on constitutional grounds). However, charges were never actually dropped by the May 31 deadline, so the contract locked in at 0¢ at resolution.

  22h ago · $53k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

  Spirit Airlines' proposed government stake offer was floated April 20 but collapsed when creditors rejected the bailout terms by May 1-2 and the airline ceased operations. The market front-ran the eventual collapse: it rallied initially on April 22-23 to 64¢ as traders priced the deal, but deteriorated sharply from May 1 onward (-38pp then -23pp) as negotiations failed and the shutdown became certain, settling to 0¢ by June 1—a clear no-stake outcome.

  22h ago · $278k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?

  Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, explicitly denied the existence of a US kamikaze dolphin program in early May 2026. Gen. Dan Caine dismissed the claim outright, comparing it to fiction; Hegseth stated 'I can't confirm or deny whether we have kamikaze dolphins, but I can confirm they don't.' With no official confirmation forthcoming and the May 31 deadline approaching, the market decayed from ~4¢ to 0¢ as the non-occurrence became certain.

  22h ago · $61k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?

  Mojtaba Khamenei, though injured in the February 28 airstrike that killed his father Ali Khamenei, remained in Iran throughout the contract period. Reports emerged in late March 2026 (March 23 article) that he was seriously injured, isolated, and unresponsive—fundamentally shifting market expectations from ~50¢ to single digits. No credible reporting suggested he ever left Iranian territory; the market bled toward 0¢ as the May 31 deadline approached with no departure confirmation.

  22h ago · $439k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

  Putin's May 9 signal of willingness to meet Zelenskyy on neutral ground reversed early pessimism and drove the price spike to 18¢, but the subsequent May 14 military escalation (1,560+ drones and 56 missiles) after the May 9-11 ceasefire collapsed eliminated any prospect of a formal diplomatic meeting by the May 31 deadline, leaving the market to settle at 0¢.

  22h ago · $117k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?

  The Senate failed to pass a reconciliation bill by May 31 after two compounding obstacles: the Senate parliamentarian ruled on May 17 that the $1B Secret Service/White House ballroom funding violated Byrd reconciliation rules, and then GOP opposition to a DOJ "anti-weaponization" fund blocked consensus by May 21. Both chambers abandoned the effort for Memorial Day recess, making passage by the deadline impossible. The price decayed from 86¢ on May 18 (just after the parliamentarian ruling) to 2¢ by May 21 as the deal's failure became inevitable, then locked near 0¢ as the deadline passed without action.

  22h ago · $60k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?

  Saudi Arabia imposed a temporary ban on US military aircraft use of its airspace and bases on May 7, 2026, in response to Trump's unannounced Project Freedom operation, but lifted it by May 8 after diplomatic talks with Crown Prince MBS. The market repriced sharply downward 49¢→25¢ on May 16, reflecting traders' recognition that no permanent policy ban would materialize, then continued drifting toward 0¢ as the May 31 deadline approached with no standing restriction announced.

  22h ago · $117k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?

  On April 21, 2026, Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized Veselyanka and entered Zaporozhets in western Zaporizhzhia—including territory near Prymorske. The market priced this as potential progress toward capture (51¢ → 15¢, -36pp on April 22 at 15:00 UTC). However, ISW and Ukrainian reports contradicted it: Ukraine repelled Russian assaults on Prymorske that same day, and Gerasimov's claims were deemed false exaggerations by independent analysts. The market had anticipated the capture risk, then repriced downward as reality diverged sharply from Russian claims, settling near 0¢ by May 31 as Prymorske remained firmly under Ukrainian control.

  22h ago · $99k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

  No permanent peace deal materialized by May 31, 2026 deadline. After initial optimism in mid-April when negotiations resumed, talks repeatedly stalled over nuclear enrichment and Strait of Hormuz control. The May 28 tentative MOU was only a 60-day ceasefire extension pending Trump approval—explicitly temporary and non-permanent. The market priced in this outcome, with the price decaying from 36¢ on May 23 to 0¢ by June 1 as the deadline passed without a qualifying permanent agreement.

  22h ago · $87.9M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?

  Russia launched its largest aerial assault since the 2022 invasion on the night of May 13–14, 2026: 1,567 drones and 56 missiles targeting Ukrainian cities including Kyiv. This decisive escalation destroyed market confidence in a May 31 ceasefire agreement. The contract had opened ~16¢ on early-May ceasefire hopes following Trump's May 9 announcement of a temporary 3-day truce; the massive May 13 attack signaled Russia's commitment to war, not diplomacy, and the price collapsed from 16¢ to 2¢ (-14pp) as traders repriced the near-zero probability of a mutually agreed ceasefire by the deadline.

  22h ago · $817k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

  Despite mounting controversies—including the April 3 firing of Army Chief Randy George, Signal messaging security breaches, and intense bipartisan congressional questioning on April 29 over the Iran war costs and personnel purges—Hegseth remained in office through May 31, 2026. The market had priced in removal risk at 28¢ on opening but collapsed to 7¢ by April 28 as political pressure failed to materialize into formal resignation or removal proceedings. By May 31 the contract had bled to 0¢ as the deadline passed without any departure.

  22h ago · $752k vol

• FinanceResolved NO

  Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?

  The prediction market launched on May 1, 2026, immediately after Chirayu Rana's lawsuit against Lorna Hajdini was publicly revealed and retracted for corrections. Traders priced the apology probability at 24¢ at launch, but the price collapsed to 10¢ on the same day as it became clear no qualifying apology would materialize—JPMorgan's internal investigation found no supporting evidence, Hajdini categorically denied all allegations, and she filed a defamation countersuit on May 19, eliminating any incentive or pathway for Rana to issue the specific public apology the market required.

  23h ago · $287k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?

  Kimmel's 'expectant widow' joke about Melania Trump on April 25 prompted calls for his firing after the April 27 White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting, but the April 28 02:00 UTC price collapse from 36¢ to 8¢ (-28pp) reflected traders pricing in his contractual protection—ABC had extended his deal through May 2027 in December 2025, making a forced firing or resignation by May 31 effectively impossible despite Trump's public demands. The market had overpriced the firing risk and corrected sharply once the contract terms became salient to traders.

  23h ago · $481k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

  Trump never made an official announcement that the United States would officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the 'Strait of Trump' or similar. He made casual remarks in March 2026 (calling it the 'Strait of Trump' at a Miami investor forum on March 27), and posted a map on April 30 showing the renamed strait, but neither constituted an official US government announcement as required by the resolution criteria. The market decayed from its 8¢ opening/high toward 0¢ over the final month as the deadline approached without the required official announcement materializing.

  23h ago · $1.7M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

  On May 13, Netanyahu's coalition formally submitted a Knesset dissolution bill, initiating the parliamentary process. The market initially fell from 24¢ to 8¢ as the process began, then spiked to 31¢ on uncertainty about timing. When the bill passed preliminary reading on May 20 with 110-0 support, the price collapsed from 31¢ to 16¢ and continued declining to 0¢, as traders recognized the multi-round voting process would extend past the May 31 deadline—the dissolution was certain but legally wouldn't finalize by the resolution cutoff.

  23h ago · $103k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?

  Ukraine's spring 2026 counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia made initial territorial gains in April (regaining ~40 km² in the region), causing price relief from 50¢ to 28¢ by April 23. However, the offensive did not extend south far enough to reach and capture Uspenivka, which Russia had taken in December 2024. As the May 31 deadline approached without Ukrainian forces reaching the objective, the price decayed from 16¢ in late April to near-0¢ by late May, finally resolving NO on June 1.

  1d ago · $65k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?

  María Corina Machado remained in exile throughout the market period despite announcing intentions to return "before end of 2026." The market steadily repriced from 50¢ toward 0¢ as her return faced obstacles: Delcy Rodríguez's warnings about legal consequences, the need for U.S. coordination, and required democratic preconditions (neutral elections, freed prisoners). The largest move (-14pp on April 8) occurred when it became clear her return was conditional and distant; the final week fade (-10pp on May 27) locked in the NO as the May 31 deadline passed without entry.

  1d ago · $200k vol

• Science & TechResolved NO

  Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

  The May 31 deadline passed without any US government official definitively confirming extraterrestrial life. The Pentagon released declassified UAP files on May 8 and May 22, 2026, generating initial speculation (price at ~6¢), but officials consistently stated the documents contained no evidence of alien origin. The market steadily bled toward 0¢ as the deadline neared with no confirmation materializing.

  1d ago · $8.7M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?

  Russia captured nearby settlements (Novodmitrivka, forests) but failed to capture Mykhailivka itself by the May 31 deadline. Market pricing reflected Russian tactical progress in late April (forward from 52¢) but gradually collapsed through May as the deadline approached without the final objective being taken, settling to 0¢ on June 1 when the NO resolution was confirmed.

  1d ago · $77k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?

  Ukrainian defense success near Lyman in late April combined with ceasefire negotiations in early May 2026 made Russian capture unlikely by the deadline. On April 23, Ukrainian troops repelled nine Russian assault attempts near Lyman (price fell from 25¢ to 12¢), signaling stalled Russian progress. On May 4-7, Russia and Ukraine announced competing ceasefires; a three-day ceasefire was agreed for May 9-11, 2026, effectively pausing large-scale operations (price fell from 12¢ to 2¢). With only ~3 weeks remaining until the May 31 deadline and military momentum stalled by ceasefire, the market repriced to near-zero.

  1d ago · $105k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?

  The May 20-21 unsealing of Raúl Castro's indictment on murder and conspiracy charges related to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown sparked an initial price hold near 50¢, but the May 22 collapse from 50¢ to 4¢ reflects the market's realization that despite the indictment, Castro was NOT captured or taken into U.S. custody—only an arrest warrant was issued while he remained in Cuba. The market priced out custody odds entirely as the May 31 deadline approached without any military operation to capture him.

  1d ago · $303k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?

  Russia claimed capture of Borova on May 16, 2026 (spiking the price +48pp to 78¢ at 09:00 UTC on May 17), but ISW analysis and geolocated footage refuted the claim within hours — Ukrainian forces controlled the area despite being 10km from the front. The price collapsed -31pp by 17:00 UTC the same day as the dispute became clear. The market ultimately resolved NO on June 1 as Russia never established actual control over Borova by the May 31 deadline.

  1d ago · $79k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Iran leadership change by May 31?

  Mojtaba Khamenei remained Supreme Leader through the May 31 deadline despite severe market skepticism about his viability. Appointed March 9 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, Mojtaba emerged as an exceptionally weak leader—never appearing publicly, ruling through AI-generated videos and written statements, and operating as merely one voice in a military consensus rather than a supreme authority. The market initially priced a 34¢ high hoping for leadership instability to trigger his ouster, but gradually repriced toward zero as his hold solidified despite Iran's near-complete military and economic collapse.

  1d ago · $3.4M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

  Israel's military escalation in Lebanon between May 18-23 prompted temporary spikes in closure risk, but the ceasefire framework ultimately held and Israel did not initiate a major airspace closure by May 31; the market repriced sharply downward on May 23 evening (45¢ → 10¢, -35pp) as traders realized the escalation risk was contained and a broad Israeli closure would not materialize.

  1d ago · $2.5M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

  Trump announced on May 23 that an Iran deal had been "largely negotiated," sparking a +53pp spike from 26¢ to 78¢ as markets priced in potential sanctions relief and asset unfreezing. However, Trump subsequently hardened his stance, insisting "no sanctions, no money" and no final deal materialized before the May 31 deadline. The contract bled from 78¢ back to 23¢ over 48 hours as the deal fell apart, ultimately settling to 0¢ at resolution.

  1d ago · $904k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

  Despite massive anti-regime protests (1.5-5 million people, 8-9 January 2026) and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 in US-Israeli strikes, Iran's core institutional structures remained intact with Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding as new Supreme Leader on 8-9 March 2026. The IRGC and security forces remained loyal; the Assembly of Experts executed an orderly (if contested) succession. The market, which opened ~6¢ reflecting regime-fall optimism, steadily bled toward 0¢ as each shock (protests, Khamenei's death) failed to collapse the Islamic Republic by May 31 deadline, settling at 0¢ on 1 June 2026 as the regime demonstrated institutional resilience through succession and repression.

  1d ago · $38.3M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Kash Patel out by May 31?

  The Atlantic published an investigative report on April 18, 2026 alleging Kash Patel engaged in excessive drinking and unexplained absences as FBI Director. The market immediately fell from 56¢ to 46¢ within hours, then continued bleeding downward as Patel survived the scandal, sued The Atlantic for $250 million, testified before Senate on May 12, and remained in office through the May 31 deadline despite multiple additional controversies (Pearl Harbor snorkeling, girlfriend use of FBI resources)—the market correctly priced the near-zero probability he would be removed by May 31.

  1d ago · $188k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?

  No in-person diplomatic meeting between JD Vance and Iran materialized by the May 31 deadline. The market tracked repeated cycles of optimism (May 6: talks "closest to agreement"; May 23: deal "largely negotiated") followed by delays and lack of final approval. Price collapsed from 30¢ to 14¢ on May 24 as Trump's promised announcement failed to materialize, and decayed to 0¢ by resolution as the deadline passed with no meeting having occurred.

  1d ago · $101k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

  Iran never publicly agreed to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 deadline. Despite Trump's May 23 announcement of a deal being 'largely negotiated' (which spiked the price from 3¢ to 17¢), Iran immediately rejected the characterization via state media, insisting it would continue managing the waterway. The market repriced hard on May 30 (17¢ → 4¢) as the gap between Trump's framing and Iran's actual position became untenable; Iran's insistence on maintaining control meant the resolution criteria for unrestricted shipping could not be satisfied.

  1d ago · $1.1M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?

  Vance-led negotiations produced a tentative MOU by late May, but Trump refused final approval, demanding tougher nuclear terms and no sanctions relief. The market spiked +14pp on May 28 when Vance announced they were 'very close,' then crashed -18pp on May 24 when Trump's final determination meeting ended with no decision. The May 31 deadline passed without a formal diplomatic meeting—negotiations collapsed as Trump insisted on terms Iran rejected, ending any prospect of the Vance-Iran meeting specified by the market's resolution criteria.

  1d ago · $60k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

  A purported Epstein suicide note was unsealed by a federal judge on May 6, 2026, following a New York Times petition filed April 30. However, the note remained unverified and undated (from July 2019, after an earlier suicide attempt), failing to meet the market's resolution criteria requiring a credibly confirmed note. The price collapsed from 45¢ to near 0¢ between May 1-13 as the market repriced away the possibility of a verified release, settling at 0¢ when the deadline passed without a credible confirmation.

  1d ago · $532k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?

  On April 21, Vice President Vance's planned second Pakistan trip was postponed indefinitely after Iran refused to participate in talks, with Trump citing security concerns. The market priced out a visit by May 31 as the indefinite postponement effectively became a cancellation—it fell from 42¢ to 4¢ over May 1-16 as the deadline approached without any reinstatement of the trip, despite late May optimism about a U.S.-Iran deal being "very close," which Vance negotiated from Washington, not Pakistan.

  1d ago · $51k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?

  Ukraine's tactical initiative seizure in May 2026 made clear Russia would not capture Kostyantynivka by May 31. The market had already fallen from 50¢ (April) to 10¢ (early May) as Russian spring offensive stalled; Commander Syrskyi's May 14 announcement that Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones crystallized the reversal, collapsing the contract to 7¢ on May 14, and it bled toward 0¢ through the final deadline with no capture ever occurring.

  1d ago · $70k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?

  The Trump administration released two batches of declassified UFO files (May 8 and May 22, 2026), but neither contained confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life—only unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAPs). The market priced this expectation mismatch: it opened at 44¢ anticipating potential alien disclosure, then decayed sharply to 0¢ as both releases proved negative, with the steepest drops on May 26 (-29pp) and May 29 (-28pp) as traders recognized no new substantive extraterrestrial evidence would materialize before the May 31 deadline.

  1d ago · $112k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

  Iran did not publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026 deadline. The market initially priced ~42¢ odds but collapsed -32pp to 10¢ on May 1 as traders ceased expecting a deal; a brief +11pp rally to 21¢ on May 24 reflected tentative agreement signals, but talks deteriorated by May 26 (−13pp to 8¢), and the contract bled to 0¢ by deadline as no formal surrender agreement materialized.

  1d ago · $5.0M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Netanyahu out by May 31?

  Netanyahu announced early-stage prostate cancer treatment on April 24, 2026, which he had kept secret during the Iran war. The market had already priced in concern about his health and political continuity; the announcement itself confirmed he had recovered and successfully completed treatment. The sharp 22pp collapse from 26¢ to 4¢ on April 28 reflected the market's assessment that despite the health revelation and his ongoing corruption trial testimony resuming that day, Netanyahu remained politically secure and would stay in office through May 31—he never announced resignation and continued performing official duties through the deadline.

  1d ago · $821k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Trump out as President by May 31?

  Trump remained in office throughout May 2026 with no resignation, removal, or sustained constitutional challenge. The market reflected near-zero probability of removal from the outset, decaying from 2¢ to 0¢ as the May 31 deadline approached with no triggering events. No catalyst moved the price materially—the steady drift to zero reflected the absence of any mechanism for removal.

  1d ago · $3.5M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

  Despite intensive behind-the-scenes negotiations throughout May 2026, no formal in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Iranian representatives occurred by the May 31 deadline. The market priced this outcome accurately: it spiked on May 6 when negotiations appeared closest (+32pp to 61¢ on Axios report of near-final deal memo), but collapsed after Trump's May 29 situation room meeting ended without approval of any meeting (-31pp to 16¢), leaving the contract to decay toward zero as the deadline passed unmet.

  1d ago · $4.7M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

  Trump paused Project Freedom on May 5 citing progress toward an Iran deal, and failed to restart it by the May 31 deadline. The May 26 spike to 72¢ was driven by fabricated reports of a completed memorandum of understanding; the White House called these reports a 'complete fabrication' hours later, causing the price to collapse to 16¢. Negotiations remained stalled through May 31 with no definitive restart announcement, leading to resolution NO.

  1d ago · $1.2M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

  Ruben Rocha Moya took temporary leave after US indictment (unsealed April 29, announced May 1), but the market resolved NO because temporary leave does not constitute permanent removal from office. The market initially spiked to 95¢ on May 2 when the announcement broke, but crashed back to 21¢ by May 3 as traders recognized 'temporary leave' meant Rocha retained his formal title and position, failing to meet the market's YES resolution criteria.

  1d ago · $479k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?

  Trump posted 'Praise be to Allah' on April 5, 2026 (Easter), in a sarcastic/mocking tone threatening Iran. While this technically met the literal resolution criteria, it was widely understood as mockery rather than genuine praise. The market had already repriced heavily by April 5 and spent May bleeding down from 27¢ toward 0¢ as traders concluded no further qualifying statements would come before the May 31 deadline.

  1d ago · $67k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

  Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary on May 14, 2026 marked the peak resignation crisis; the market had spiked to 56¢ on May 11 when Starmer's defiant speech triggered 4 PPSs to resign and 70+ MPs to call for his exit. However, on May 12, over 110 Labour MPs signed a support letter stabilizing him temporarily (price dropped from 56¢ to 36¢). After Streeting's May 14 resignation—the most senior departure—the price fell to 16¢. A brief recovery spike to 38¢ on May 17 suggested some renewed uncertainty, but by May 18 the market collapsed toward zero as it became clear Starmer would survive the crisis through to the May 31 deadline, resolving NO.

  1d ago · $2.1M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

  Trump indicated in mid-April he might visit Pakistan to seal an Iran deal, driving the price to 27¢, but cancelled envoy trips on April 25 after Iran disengaged. As May progressed with no Trump visit scheduled and the May 31 deadline approached, the contract bled from 16¢ to 6¢. Trump ultimately never visited Pakistan—he went to China instead—resolving the market NO on June 1.

  1d ago · $486k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

  Trump declined to approve the tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal negotiated by May 28; his May 29 Situation Room meeting ended without a final determination, and his additional demands (stricter nuclear verification, Lebanon ceasefire as a condition) and Iran's insistence on tied issue (Lebanon) proved irreconcilable. The price had climbed from 20¢ to 54¢ on May 28-29 on deal hopes, then fell to 26¢ on the May 29 evening announcement that Trump would not approve, leaving no qualifying announcement by the May 31 deadline.

  1d ago · $5.2M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

  On April 29, 2026, Trump rejected Iran's negotiation proposals and reaffirmed his demand for no uranium enrichment in Iran, stating 'At this moment there will never be a deal unless they agree that there will never be nuclear weapons.' The market had opened at ~48¢ pricing in deal probability, but this hardline announcement collapsed negotiations; the price fell 38pp to 10¢ within hours—a clean reaction to Trump killing the diplomatic path forward. Subsequent negotiations in May yielded only an in-principle framework for Iran to 'give up' enriched uranium, not an agreement to continued enrichment. The contract drifted toward 0¢ into the June 1 deadline as no definitive Trump approval of continued enrichment materialized.

  1d ago · $3.8M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

  No official announcement lifting the blockade was made by the May 31 deadline. Trump paused military operations on May 5 citing 'great progress' toward a deal, which spiked the price from 28¢ to 46¢. But negotiations collapsed after military escalation on May 25, and Trump rejected key terms (Iran-Oman sharing shipping oversight) on May 28, causing a sharp decline to 11¢ by May 28. The market correctly priced the non-occurrence: absent the required explicit announcement, it resolved NO.

  1d ago · $9.4M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

  The Trump-Xi summit on May 15 produced only modest side agreements on agriculture and trade councils, not a formal mutual tariff agreement. The market repriced from 65¢ to 28¢ (-37pp) the moment this outcome became clear—traders had anticipated a headline tariff deal but received only discussion frameworks instead. By deadline May 31, no comprehensive agreement materialized; the sides continued with rolled-over truces from prior periods.

  1d ago · $146k vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

  The market resolved NO as no definitive Trump agreement to Iranian transit fees materialized by May 31. The 47¢→14¢ drop on April 29 reflected growing skepticism after Secretary Rubio dismissed Iran's reopening proposal as conditioning transit on Iranian permission/payment. The subsequent 14¢→4¢ decline on May 2-3 tracked deteriorating ceasefire terms, with the May 24 deal explicitly stipulating 'no tolls' on the Strait, and final collapse came June 1 when Iran halted all negotiations—the market had priced out a YES by early May.

  1d ago · $3.0M vol

• PoliticsResolved NO

  US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

  Trump cancelled a planned envoy trip to Pakistan on April 25, 2026, citing divisions within Iranian leadership and signaling a breakdown in uranium transfer negotiations. The market dropped from 20¢ to 8¢ (-11pp) as traders repriced the deal's failure risk. Despite a May 24 draft MOU proposing a 60-day negotiation window for uranium disposition, no actual transfer occurred by the May 31 deadline, and the market settled at 0¢ as it became clear possession would not be achieved.

  1d ago · $20.5M vol