Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $5.8M volume
Why it resolved
Gustavo Bolívar withdrew from Historic Pact primary process on September 26, 2025, endorsed Iván Cepeda instead, and failed to advance as a unified left-wing candidate. The market had already repriced sharply downward on August 1, 2025 (50¢ → 11¢, -39pp) in anticipation of his withdrawal or nomination difficulties, confirming market foreknowledge of candidacy challenges ahead of his formal announcement.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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