Orakll — prediction-market intelligence: Quant Dashboard for Traders, MCP for Agents

Drift-red bars = ≤5% or ≥95% (pinned) · light = active range · gold line = mean

PC1 = the dominant factor (often “everything together”) · PC2/3 = independent storylines · loadings unit-norm

spread% = (ask − bid) / mid · your transaction cost before you trade

• Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?mid 1.0¢ · VWAP 62.9¢-98.4%50 trades · $2k notional
• Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?mid 1.0¢ · VWAP 56.9¢-98.2%50 trades · $2k notional
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?mid 2.0¢ · VWAP 97.7¢-98.0%50 trades · $1k notional
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?mid 7.0¢ · VWAP 40.8¢-82.8%50 trades · $11k notional

+ mid above VWAP = bid-up since most volume traded · − mid below = sold off

• Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?alignedCVD −$225k · price -0.1pp · 100 prints
• Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?alignedCVD −$220k · price -0.1pp · 100 prints
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?alignedCVD +$37k · price 0.0pp · 100 prints
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?alignedCVD +$29k · price -0.2pp · 100 prints

bearish = price up on net selling · bullish = price down on net buying · CVD YES-normalized

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?+0.6ppfair 21.6¢ · mid 21.0¢ · cross ~1.0¢/share
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?+0.5ppfair 34.0¢ · mid 33.5¢ · cross ~1.5¢/share
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?+0.4ppfair 5.9¢ · mid 5.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+0.3ppfair 16.8¢ · mid 16.5¢ · cross ~0.5¢/share

fair = ask / (ask + (1 − bid)) · edge = fair − mid · + fair above mid = bid-side thin

• Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?-100% NO$25k
  Biggest single print: 0x97cd…b40f NO $5k
• Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?-100% NO$25k
  Biggest single print: 0xc21b…8262 NO $5k
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+100% YES$34k
  Biggest single print: eightpenguins YES $26k
• Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?-94% NO$935
  Biggest single print: Everestpredictions NO $800

+ YES = big tickets buying YES · − NO = big tickets buying NO · pair with whale concentration above

Solid = sector basket · dashed gold = focused market

β > 1 = amplifies the basket · β < 0 = inverse · R² = how much of the move is systematic

ρ > +0.15 = momentum · ρ < -0.15 = mean-reverting · |ρ| < 0.15 = random walk

• Clacton by-election Winner+2199.35pp52 legs · Σ YES = 2299.3¢ · action: LAY every leg · top leg: Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-ele… 92¢
• US announces blockade on Iran by...?+28.00pp3 legs · Σ YES = 128.0¢ · action: LAY every leg · top leg: Will the US announce a blockade on Iran … 55¢
• Presidential Election Winner 2028−6.35pp37 legs · Σ YES = 93.6¢ · action: BACK every leg · top leg: Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidenti… 20¢
• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028−2.35pp45 legs · Σ YES = 97.6¢ · action: BACK every leg · top leg: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democrati… 19¢

Caveat: assumes mutual-exclusivity · spreads + slippage eat the first ~2-3pp · negative-risk events sum > 1 by design

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?upward +65pp
  1. Jul 15, '260¢
  2. Jul 31, '267¢fwd +7pp
  3. Aug 31, '2621¢fwd +15pp
  4. Dec 31, '2665¢fwd +56pp
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?upward +15pp
  1. Jul 17, '2610¢
  2. Jul 31, '2625¢fwd +17pp

upward = later dates price more · fwd = conditional prob priced into the next leg

point size = sample · above diagonal = under-priced · below = overconfident