80 Mines Hold Hormuz Recovery at Even Money
The Hormuz recovery market holds at 47.5% YES at 02:40 UTC Saturday as 80 IMO-estimated mines block the transit threshold despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
By Robin Carr · Filed June 27, 2026
Culture
Awards, language and the cultural contracts traders can't resist.
27 reports on the wire
Culture Musk 240-259 Bracket Hits 33% as High-Pace Tracker Read Fires
Musk's 240-259 bracket hit 33.15% Wednesday, up 31.7pp in 24 hours, as a MuskMeter high-pace reading fired YES conviction with 52 hours to settlement.
Filed June 24, 2026
Culture $160M Domestic Gross Fires Toy Story 5 Bracket to 89.5% Session High
The Toy Story 5 $158–171M bracket reached 89.5% Sunday at 19:53 UTC — the session high, up 26.5pp on Variety's confirmed $160 million domestic gross.
Filed June 21, 2026
Culture Toy Story 5's $71M Opening Day Locks $158–171M Bracket at 77.5%
Polymarket's $158–171M Toy Story 5 opening-weekend bracket stood at 77.5% as of 08:15 UTC Saturday after swinging 40.5 points higher in 24 hours on Friday's confirmed $71M gross.
Filed June 20, 2026
Culture Toy Story 5 $171-184M Bracket Climbs to 55.5% on $17.5M Preview Night
Toy Story 5's $171M–$184M bracket holds at 55.5% as of 19:47 UTC Friday after $17.5M Thursday previews fire a YES recovery from the 0.26 session floor.
Filed June 19, 2026
Culture Toy Story 5 YES Climbs to 22% as Opening Day Fires Recovery
Toy Story 5's $184M Polymarket contract priced at 22% as of 15:39 UTC Friday, recovering from the session's 0.08 floor as opening-day attendance data filters in.
Filed June 19, 2026
Culture Elon's 65-89 Bracket Surges to 75% With 22 Hours to Settlement
Musk's June 15–17 tweet-count YES contract stands at 75% as of 18:17 UTC Tuesday, up 43pp from its 31.5% session open and roughly 22 hours from noon ET Wednesday settlement.
Filed June 16, 2026
Culture Mine Math Drives Hormuz June Contract to 16.5% Floor
The Hormuz end-of-June recovery contract sits at 16.5% Tuesday — down 11pp in 24 hours as mine-clearance math overrides the Iran peace accord.
Filed June 16, 2026
Culture Toy Story 5's Record-Opening Forecast Drives YES Contract to 36.4%
Polymarket's Toy Story 5 top-grosser contract climbed to 36.4% as of 20:29 UTC Thursday — a 17.75pp overnight surge — as a $150M opening-weekend projection cements franchise conviction eight days before release.
0¢implied——Filed June 11, 2026
Culture Obsession's Record Leg Pins Devil Wears Prada 2 at 11.75%
Prada 2 dropped to 11.75% for May's domestic crown as of 12:29 UTC Thursday, down 18.15 points overnight, as Obsession clears $152.1 million domestic.
Filed June 11, 2026
Culture Obsession's Horror-Record 4th Weekend Crushes Prada 2 Odds to 12%
"The Devil Wears Prada 2" has fallen to 11.9% on Polymarket as of Thursday June 11, down 17.4 points in 24 hours, after rival May release Obsession posted the biggest fourth weekend in horror-film history.
Filed June 11, 2026
Culture Insurance Wall Absorbs Both YES Rallies; Hormuz Recovery at 8.5%
The Polymarket Hormuz recovery contract settled at 8.5% at 17:29 UTC Wednesday, down from a session high of 10.5%, as insurance economics outlast ceasefire diplomacy.
Filed June 10, 2026
Culture Musk 40-64 Bracket Firms at 80.5% With Seven Hours Left
The 40-64 tweet bracket stands at 80.5% as of 08:58 UTC Wednesday, up 37 points from its 43.5% open, with the noon ET deadline 7 hours away.
Filed June 10, 2026
Culture NO Sellers Absorb Escalation Spike; Airspace Closure Holds at 13.5%
Israel's June 15 airspace-closure contract trades at 13.5% as of 06:07 UTC Wednesday, well off a June 9 session peak of 23.5%.
Filed June 10, 2026
Culture Israel Airspace-Closure Odds Crater to 11.5% as Mutual Halt Holds
The Israel-closes-airspace contract stands at 11.5% as of 02:56 UTC Tuesday, down from 0.685 at the session's start, as both sides maintain their strike suspension.
Filed June 9, 2026
Culture Musk 220-239 Tweet Bracket Surges to 57.5% With 20 Hours Left
The 220-239 tweet bracket hit 57.5% at 19:32 UTC Monday—up 23pp from 34.5%—as Elon Musk's June 2–9 window closes Tuesday at noon ET.
Filed June 8, 2026
Culture Hormuz Recovery Hits 9.5% Session Low as Two Bounces Fail
The Hormuz June-normalization contract hit 9.5% at 02:05 UTC Monday — a new session low — as mine clearance and 4,000× insurance costs continue to block June recovery.
Filed June 8, 2026
Culture Hormuz June Recovery Slips to 12.5% as Mine Backlog Deepens
The Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery contract sits at 12.5% as of Sunday, down 2pp on the session, as 4,000× war-risk premiums and a six-month mine backlog overwhelm ceasefire momentum.
Filed June 7, 2026
Culture Hormuz June Recovery at 14.5% as Mine-Clearance Outlasts Ceasefire
Hormuz June recovery sits at 14.5% as of 01:20 UTC Sunday — down 2pp — as mine-clearance timelines and insurance costs outlast the ceasefire.
Filed June 7, 2026
Culture Six-Month Mine Backlog and 4,000× Insurance Wall Pin Hormuz June Contract at 15.5%
The Hormuz June-end recovery contract holds at 15.5% Saturday morning—down 4pp from Friday's open—as uncleared mines and prohibitive war-risk premiums outlast ceasefire gains.
Filed June 6, 2026
Culture Alien Confirmation Holds 14.5% as PURSUE Drops Miss Resolution Bar
US alien-confirmation held at 14.5% at 02:10 UTC Friday, flat for 24 hours, as PURSUE releases miss the definitive-statement bar.
4¢implied——Filed June 5, 2026
Culture Hormuz July-31 Contract Eases to 34.5% as Mine Backlog Outlasts Ceasefire
Hormuz July-31 recovery sits at 34.5% as of 05:27 UTC Thursday, down 4 points from the 38.5% session open on mine-clearance and insurance headwinds.
Filed June 4, 2026
Culture Hormuz June-End Contract Holds at 20% as Logistics Stalemate Deepens
Hormuz June-end contract at 20% Wednesday morning — down 1.5pp as two daily transits persist beneath the 60-crossing resolution bar.
Filed June 3, 2026
Culture Musk Pace Projects 169 Posts as 160-179 Bracket Firms at 38%
The Musk 160-179 bracket sits at 38.15% Wednesday morning — up 16.5pp in 24 hours — as 108 tracker posts pace toward the bracket center with 60 hours left before Friday's deadline.
Filed June 3, 2026
Culture Backrooms $79M Contract Plunges to 68%, Snaps Back to 85%
The A24 horror contract hit a 24-hour low of 68.2% on Saturday-multiplier uncertainty before bouncing to 84.75% at 08:50 UTC Sunday as Deadline projects an $85M–$88M opening weekend.
Filed May 31, 2026
Culture Breadwinner Opening-Day Data Sends $7M+ Contract to 87.5¢
The Breadwinner's $7M+ contract hit 87.5¢ Saturday, up 23.5 points in 24 hours, as opening-day data confirmed $2.75M from 3,252 theaters.
Filed May 30, 2026
Culture Backrooms Contract Fades to 85.6¢ as Industry Projects $76M–$79M
The YES contract on Backrooms' opening weekend exceeding $79M sits at 85.6% as of 10:54 UTC May 30, down 4.9pp in 24 hours after Deadline's $76M–$79M projection bracketed the resolution threshold.
Filed May 30, 2026