Goldman's 420K Ceiling Holds Tesla 475K YES at 22% After Intraday Crash
Tesla's 475K Q2 delivery market sits at 22.1% YES as of Saturday 07:55 UTC, down 24.4pp on the Goldman 420K ceiling.
By Priya Nair · Filed June 27, 2026
Finance
Stocks, IPOs, earnings and the commodity contracts traders price daily.
54 reports on the wire
Finance Tesla 475K Odds Collapse to 12.8% as Wall Street Consensus Lands 69K Short
Tesla's Q2-475K delivery YES is at 12.8% at 00:40 UTC Saturday — down 23.5pp in 24 hours — as a 22-analyst Wall Street consensus of 406,024 units sits nearly 69,000 vehicles below the resolution bar.
Filed June 27, 2026
Finance OpenAI IPO Odds Fall 10pp to 22% as Anthropic Cuts the Queue
OpenAI's December IPO market sits at 22% as of Friday night, down 10 percentage points in 24 hours on a reported 2027 delay and Anthropic's rival S-1 filing.
19¢implied▼−0.5 ptsFiled June 27, 2026
Finance OpenAI 2026 IPO Odds Crater 33.5pp to 20.5% on 2027 Delay Signal
The Polymarket contract on an OpenAI year-end IPO fell to 20.5% Friday after reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar is backing a 2027 delay as Anthropic prepares to list first.
19¢implied▼−0.5 ptsFiled June 26, 2026
Finance Monthly PCE Cooling Locks Fed July Hold at 80.5%
The Fed no-change market hit 80.5% as of 04:45 UTC Friday — a 5pp gain in 24 hours — as May's softer monthly inflation print sidelines July hike bets.
79¢implied▼−6.0 ptsFiled June 26, 2026
Finance Apple's Memory Rout Drives Alphabet No. 2 Cap Odds to 73%
Alphabet's June 30 market-cap contract stands at 73% as of 01:30 UTC Friday, up 42 percentage points, after Apple's hardware price hikes erased roughly $275 billion in AAPL market value.
Filed June 26, 2026
Finance Tesla 475K Odds Fall to 36.3% as Goldman's 420K Ceiling Reasserts
Tesla's Q2-475K delivery bracket holds at 36.3% YES Friday morning, retreating from a 49.95% session peak as Goldman's 420K estimate sits 55,000 below the resolution threshold.
Filed June 26, 2026
Finance AAPL Price-Hike Selloff Crashes Apple No. 2 Cap Odds to 32%
Apple's No. 2 market-cap odds fell 41pp to 32% as of 21:05 UTC Thursday as AAPL shed 5.2% on Mac and iPad price hikes driven by an AI memory shortage.
Filed June 26, 2026
Finance Apple Price-Hike Drop Fires Alphabet No. 2 Cap Odds to 63.5%
Alphabet's odds of holding the No. 2 market-cap slot through June 30 reached 63.5% as of 19:59 UTC Thursday, up 36 percentage points on Apple's 4.79% selloff.
Filed June 25, 2026
Finance Tesla 475K Delivery Bracket Hits Coin-Flip Odds With Five Days to Close
The 475,000-or-more Q2 bracket repriced 12.85pp to 48.6% YES as of 17:43 UTC Thursday — a near-coin-flip five days before quarter close on June 30.
Filed June 25, 2026
Finance SPCX All-Time Low Recovery Fires SpaceX $2–$2.5T Bracket to 54%
SpaceX's $2.0–$2.5T bracket reached 54% Wednesday — up 8.5pp — as SPCX recovered from its all-time low with six days to IPO-month resolution.
Filed June 25, 2026
Finance SpaceX $2–$2.5T Bracket Hits 50.5% as SPCX Closes Above $2T Mark
The SpaceX $2.0–$2.5T market-cap bracket settled at 50.5% by 20:55 UTC Wednesday — up from a session low of 45.0% — as SPCX closed at $154.54 with a $2.036T market cap right inside the target range.
Filed June 25, 2026
Finance Bond Offer and Options Shorts Hold SpaceX $2T Bracket at 36.5%
SpaceX's $1.5–$2T market-cap bracket sat at 36.5% as of 16:38 UTC Tuesday, retreating from an API-reported session high of 52.5% as a $20 billion bond filing and an active options market weigh on YES odds.
Filed June 23, 2026
Finance SpaceX 14+ June-Launch YES Surges 20pp to 87% on Month-End Calendar
SpaceX's 14+ June-launch YES contract priced at 87% at 22:26 UTC Monday, up 20pp in 24 hours, as June's launch calendar fills toward the threshold.
Filed June 23, 2026
Finance Platform-Addiction Ruling Crashes Alphabet Second-Place Contract to 30%
Alphabet's odds of being second-largest by market cap on June 30 are 30% Monday, down 50pp intraday after a California platform-addiction ruling dented GOOGL stock.
Filed June 23, 2026
Finance SPCX 16% Drop Drives SpaceX $1.5–$2T Cap Bracket to 46.5%
SpaceX's $1.5–$2.0T bracket surged 32 percentage points to 46.5% Monday as SPCX cratered 16%, pushing its market cap to within ~$3 of the $2.0T ceiling.
Filed June 22, 2026
Finance Warsh's Blank Dot Holds July Hike Odds at 24.55% After Morning Run
The Polymarket July Fed rate-hike market holds at 24.55% as of 15:13 UTC Monday, up 4pp, with Chair Warsh's blank dot capping conviction.
22¢implied▲+6.4 ptsFiled June 22, 2026
Finance Saturday Decline Estimates Pin Toy Story 5 Bracket at 63%
Toy Story 5's $158–171M opening weekend bracket sits at 63% as of 19:51 UTC Saturday, as analyst projections of $160M–$170M straddle the bracket's $171M ceiling.
Filed June 20, 2026
Finance Iran Enrichment-End Stalls at 5.5% as MoU Text Forecloses Zero Pledge
Iran's uranium-enrichment-end contract sits at 5.5% as of 07:14 UTC Saturday — down from a 0.595 session high — after the published MoU committed only to downblending stockpiled material, not to ending enrichment.
Filed June 20, 2026
Finance July Fed Hike Odds Jump 7.4pp to 27% After Warsh Debut
The July 2026 Fed 25bps-hike contract priced at 26.95% at 07:17 UTC Friday, up 7.4pp after Kevin Warsh's hawkish first FOMC meeting removed the easing bias.
22¢implied▲+6.4 ptsFiled June 19, 2026
Finance Nine FOMC Dots Back 2026 Hike; Fed Rate-Hike YES Surges to 57%
The Fed rate-hike YES contract reached 57% as of 19:53 UTC Wednesday, up 28.5pp from the session's 0.285 floor, after Warsh's debut dot plot showed 9 of 18 officials backing at least one 2026 hike.
54¢implied▲+2.0 ptsFiled June 17, 2026
Finance Fed Rate-Hike Contract at 35.5% as Warsh's FOMC Debut Opens
The December 2026 Fed rate-hike contract climbed 4 points overnight to 35.5% on Tuesday as Warsh's first FOMC meeting opens against elevated inflation expectations.
54¢implied▲+2.0 ptsFiled June 16, 2026
Finance SpaceX $3.0–3.5T Bracket at 17.45% as MSCI June 29 Rebalancing Looms
SpaceX's $3.0–3.5T IPO-month bracket trades at 17.45% as of 15:42 UTC Tuesday, up 14.8pp from its 2.65% Monday opening print, as MSCI's June 29 fast-track inclusion lands one day before settlement.
Filed June 16, 2026
Finance Iran Peace Deal Lifts WTI $75 Contract to 51.5%
The WTI crude below-$75 June contract sits at 51.5% as of 21:35 UTC Monday, recovering from a session low of 44.5% after Trump's Iran peace deal drove spot crude toward $80.
Filed June 16, 2026
Finance Iran Deal and Analyst Initiations Drive SpaceX's $2.5T Bracket to 29.3%
SpaceX's $2.5–3.0T IPO-month bracket has risen to 29.3% as of 21:03 UTC Monday, up 19.05pp in 24 hours, as SPCX surged 19.58% to $192.47.
Filed June 16, 2026
Finance SpaceX 2026 IPO Crown Holds at 88% After Overnight Dip to 86%
SpaceX's highest-2026-IPO-cap Polymarket contract trades at 88% as of 08:01 UTC Sunday, up 9.5pp over 24 hours, with the session ranging from 78.5% to a 91.5% peak.
88¢implied——Filed June 14, 2026
Finance Record $2T Nasdaq Debut Holds SpaceX IPO-Cap Contract at 88%
SpaceX's highest-IPO-cap contract held at 88% Saturday — up 8.5pp — after SPCX's record $2T Nasdaq debut held through day two.
88¢implied——Filed June 13, 2026
Finance SpaceX Holds 2026 IPO Crown at 87.5% After Record Nasdaq Debut
The highest-IPO-market-cap contract repriced 8.5pp to 87.5% Saturday as SpaceX's $2.11 trillion first-day closing cap leaves no credible 2026 rival in range.
88¢implied——Filed June 13, 2026
Finance SpaceX $2.0T–$2.5T Cap Bracket Eases to 50.5% as SPCX Opens
The $2.0T–$2.5T SpaceX market-cap bracket trades at 50.5% at 07:11 UTC Friday — a coin flip off the session high of 55.5%, as SPCX begins its Nasdaq debut.
Filed June 12, 2026
Finance SpaceX IPO Bracket Climbs to 52.5% as Nasdaq Debut Nears
The $2.0T–$2.5T closing cap bracket sits at 52.5% as of 03:46 UTC Friday, up 9pp in 24 hours, with SpaceX's Nasdaq debut hours away.
Filed June 12, 2026
Finance Altman's 'Next Year' IPO Hedge Stalls OpenAI Recovery at 42.5%
OpenAI's December 31 IPO contract sits at 42.5% as of 06:00 UTC Thursday after a failed overnight bounce, down 32 points over the prior 24 hours.
19¢implied▼−0.5 ptsFiled June 11, 2026
Finance Altman's 'Within the Next Year' Hedge Pins OpenAI IPO Odds at 48.5%
Sam Altman's June 10 internal message that OpenAI could list 'within the next year' has the Dec-31 IPO contract at 48.5% Thursday, a 24.5-point overnight collapse from Wednesday's 73% open.
19¢implied▼−0.5 ptsFiled June 11, 2026
Finance Altman's RSI Escape Hatch Caps OpenAI IPO Recovery at 49%
The OpenAI December IPO contract sits at 49% as of 23:45 UTC Wednesday — down 23 points overnight — after Altman's RSI escape hatch stripped the December window of conviction.
19¢implied▼−0.5 ptsFiled June 11, 2026
Finance OpenAI's Own Hedge Cuts IPO Odds 30 Points to 46.5%
The OpenAI IPO-by-December 2026 contract fell to 46.5% at 17:10 UTC Wednesday, off a 0.765 session high, after the company's own S-1 filing warned the listing 'may be a while.'
19¢implied▼−0.5 ptsFiled June 10, 2026
Finance Alphabet No. 2 Contract Hits 0.725 Session High, Retreats to 67.5%
Alphabet's No. 2 market-cap contract holds at 67.5% Wednesday — off a 0.725 session peak — as Apple's WWDC miss anchors a 19.5-point rally from the prior-day open.
Filed June 10, 2026
Finance Alphabet's No. 2 Contract Surges to 69.5% on Apple's WWDC Slide
Alphabet's June 30 contract stands at 69.5% as of Wednesday morning, up 16.5 points in 24 hours as Apple's post-WWDC retreat opened the No. 2 market-cap gap.
Filed June 10, 2026
Finance Anthropic Acquisition Spike to 27% Fades; YES Settles at 7.5%
Anthropic's acquisition market priced YES at 7.5% as of 00:17 UTC Monday after a sharp intraday spike to 27% was faded; the contract opened the session at 6.5%.
6¢implied——Filed June 8, 2026
Finance Saylor Pattern Play Drives MicroStrategy Purchase Odds to 85.5%
The June 2–8 purchase contract surged 29pp to 85.5% by Sunday morning, with fewer than 44 hours remaining before Monday's 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Filed June 7, 2026
Finance Zero-Cuts Market Holds 80.95% as Payrolls Conviction Absorbs Counter-Bets
The zero-cuts contract holds at 80.95% at 21:05 UTC Saturday, up 9.3 pp, after May payrolls more than doubled analyst forecasts.
78¢implied——Filed June 7, 2026
Finance May Payrolls Blowout Drives Zero-Cuts Conviction to 83%
May's 172,000-job blowout — more than double the consensus — has driven the zero-cuts-in-2026 contract up 13.8 points to 83% on Saturday, erasing the last credible case for Fed easing.
78¢implied——Filed June 6, 2026
Finance NVIDIA's June-30 Lead Firms to 94.5% as Alphabet Clinches No. 2
NVIDIA's June-30 #1 contract printed 94.5% at 02:37 UTC Friday as Alphabet's capture of second place from Apple sends the rival contract to a coin-flip 53%.
Filed June 5, 2026
Finance OpenAI Counter-Bets Grind Anthropic-First Contract to 72.5%
Anthropic's IPO-first contract retreated to 72.5% as of Wednesday, down 8.5 points from its 81% session open, as OpenAI counter-bet pressure persists.
87¢implied▲+1.0 ptsFiled June 3, 2026
Finance Apple's $245B Lead Over Alphabet Holds June-30 #2 Contract at 68.5%
The Polymarket contract on Apple holding the #2 global market-cap rank on June 30 stands at 68.5% as of 16:53 UTC Wednesday, up 11.5pp from the session open after Tuesday's all-time high.
Filed June 3, 2026
Finance OpenAI's September IPO Target Trims Anthropic's Edge to 73¢
Anthropic's IPO-first contract sits at 73% as of Wednesday morning, 13 points off Tuesday's post-filing peak, as OpenAI's own accelerated September timeline draws fresh counter-bets.
87¢implied▲+1.0 ptsFiled June 3, 2026
Finance Apple All-Time High Lifts June 30 #2 Contract 20pp to 62.5%
Apple's June 30 second-largest-by-market-cap contract hit 62.5% Tuesday—up 20 percentage points in 24 hours—as AAPL touched a record $315.02 ahead of WWDC on June 8.
Filed June 2, 2026
Finance Bid Wall Holds as Anthropic's IPO-First Contract Settles at 83%
One day after its June 1 confidential S-1 filing, Anthropic's 'who lists first' contract holds at 83% with a 5-to-1 bid wall absorbing counter-pressure.
87¢implied▲+1.0 ptsFiled June 2, 2026
Finance Anthropic's IPO-First Contract Recovers to 82¢ After S-1 Surge
Anthropic's 'who IPOs first?' contract is at 82% as of 16:37 UTC Tuesday, up 12.5 points from 69.5¢ over 24 hours after the company's confidential SEC filing on June 1.
87¢implied▲+1.0 ptsFiled June 2, 2026
Finance Counter-Bets Drag Anthropic IPO Contract to 78¢ From 88.5¢ High
Anthropic's IPO-first contract sits at 78¢ Tuesday, off its 88.5¢ peak, after the confidential filing sparked a 53.5-point surge from 24.5¢.
87¢implied▲+1.0 ptsFiled June 2, 2026
Finance Block Buyers Hold Anthropic IPO Contract at 86% After Confidential Filing
The 'who lists first' contract sits at 86% Anthropic as of 03:57 UTC Tuesday, up 61.5pp in 24 hours on the confidential S-1 filing.
87¢implied▲+1.0 ptsFiled June 2, 2026
Finance Anthropic's Confidential IPO Filing Sends 'Who Lists First' Contract 56 Points Higher
'Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?' hit 80.5% as of 01:54 UTC Tuesday after Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO following its $65B Series H.
87¢implied▲+1.0 ptsFiled June 2, 2026
Finance Strategy June-30 Bitcoin-Sale Contract at 74.85% as STRC Vote Nears
Strategy's June-30 bitcoin-sale market stands at 74.85% as of 03:50 UTC Monday, up 1.8 percentage points in 24 hours as STRC dividend pressure builds toward a June 8 shareholder vote.
Filed June 1, 2026
Finance STRC Record Date Anchors Sale Contract at 25¢ After 40¢ Spike
Strategy's May-31 Bitcoin-sale contract holds 25.05¢ as of 01:47 UTC Saturday, up 13.3pp on the session but retreating sharply from a 40¢ intraday peak.
Filed May 30, 2026
Finance Strategy's May-31 Sale Contract Holds 25¢, STRC Dividend Due Sunday
Strategy's May-31 bitcoin-sale contract trades at 25.1¢ as of 00:38 UTC Saturday, +13.75pp on the session, with STRC's $0.96/share dividend payment due Sunday.
Filed May 30, 2026
Finance STRC Cracks $99 as Strategy's May-31 Bitcoin-Sale Contract Firms at 27%
Strategy's May-31 bitcoin-sale contract stands at 27.05% on Friday as STRC slips to $97.11, up 13.3pp in 24 hours on $663k in volume.
Filed May 29, 2026