Anthropic Acquisition Spike to 27% Fades; YES Settles at 7.5%
Anthropic's acquisition market priced YES at 7.5% as of 00:17 UTC Monday after a sharp intraday spike to 27% was faded; the contract opened the session at 6.5%.
The Market · LiveTrade ↗YES probability · 24h change
- 24h vol
- $19
- Liquidity
- $16k
- Contract
The Anthropic acquisition market priced YES at 7.5% as of 00:17 UTC Monday — up 1 percentage point from its 6.5% session open — after a thin-book spike drove the contract to a sampled session high of 0.27 at 23:29 UTC before a single dominant seller unwound it in under a minute. With $23,646 in 24-hour volume, the episode illustrates how little liquidity separates this contract's equilibrium from a brief speculative pop.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Finance OpenAI IPO Odds Fall 10pp to 22% as Anthropic Cuts the Queue
OpenAI's December IPO market sits at 22% as of Friday night, down 10 percentage points in 24 hours on a reported 2027 delay and Anthropic's rival S-1 filing.
16¢implied——Filed June 27, 2026
Finance OpenAI 2026 IPO Odds Crater 33.5pp to 20.5% on 2027 Delay Signal
The Polymarket contract on an OpenAI year-end IPO fell to 20.5% Friday after reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar is backing a 2027 delay as Anthropic prepares to list first.
16¢implied——Filed June 26, 2026
Finance Tesla 475K Delivery Bracket Hits Coin-Flip Odds With Five Days to Close
The 475,000-or-more Q2 bracket repriced 12.85pp to 48.6% YES as of 17:43 UTC Thursday — a near-coin-flip five days before quarter close on June 30.
Filed June 25, 2026
Finance Altman's 'Next Year' IPO Hedge Stalls OpenAI Recovery at 42.5%
OpenAI's December 31 IPO contract sits at 42.5% as of 06:00 UTC Thursday after a failed overnight bounce, down 32 points over the prior 24 hours.
16¢implied——Filed June 11, 2026
Finance Saylor Pattern Play Drives MicroStrategy Purchase Odds to 85.5%
The June 2–8 purchase contract surged 29pp to 85.5% by Sunday morning, with fewer than 44 hours remaining before Monday's 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Filed June 7, 2026
Finance OpenAI Counter-Bets Grind Anthropic-First Contract to 72.5%
Anthropic's IPO-first contract retreated to 72.5% as of Wednesday, down 8.5 points from its 81% session open, as OpenAI counter-bet pressure persists.
95¢implied▲+0.1 ptsFiled June 3, 2026