OpenAI 2026 IPO Odds Crater 33.5pp to 20.5% on 2027 Delay Signal
The Polymarket contract on an OpenAI year-end IPO fell to 20.5% Friday after reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar is backing a 2027 delay as Anthropic prepares to list first.
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The Polymarket contract pricing an OpenAI IPO by December 31 sat at 20.5% as of 18:11 UTC Friday, down 33.5 percentage points from 0.54 at the opening of the 24-hour window on $18,019 in volume. The session printed a high of 0.545 and a low of 0.195. The steepest single-interval move — from 0.54 to 0.355 between the 20:14 and 20:38 UTC captures Thursday — coincided with initial reports of the delay, with selling extending into Friday to the current 0.205.
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