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What will get said — markets on the words and phrases of public life.
47 reports on the wire
The Elon Musk 40-64 tweet bracket for June 25–27 sits at 89.5% as of 03:31 UTC Saturday — up 43 percentage points in the session — as the rival 65-89 band collapses to just 6 cents on the dollar.
By Sam Okoro · Filed June 27, 2026
Elon Musk's 65-89 tweet bracket fell to 8.65% at 01:32 UTC Saturday, down 26.75 percentage points over 24 hours as the rival 40-64 bracket claimed 85% probability with 14.5 hours to close.
Filed June 27, 2026
Elon Musk's 240-259 tweet bracket stands at 73.05% as of 04:36 UTC Friday — up 51.1 points from Thursday's session floor — with noon ET settlement 11 hours 24 minutes away.
Filed June 26, 2026
The 240–259 tweet bracket reached 47.55% at 06:24 UTC Thursday, recovering from a 21.95% pre-dawn session low after buyers pushed the contract through a 50.30% recovery peak with fewer than 34 hours to the Friday deadline.
Filed June 25, 2026
Elon Musk's 220-239 tweet bracket reached 40% at 21:54 UTC Wednesday, up 13.5 points in 24 hours, as traders price a concentrated posting burst into the June 26 settlement.
Filed June 25, 2026
Elon Musk's 220-239 weekly tweet bracket held at a session-high 36.5% as of 19:39 UTC Wednesday, up 17pp over the past 24 hours, with roughly 44 hours to Friday's settlement.
Filed June 24, 2026
Elon Musk's 220-239 post bracket reached a session-high 36% at 19:06 UTC Wednesday, up 17 percentage points from Tuesday's open, with 45 hours to Friday's noon-ET close.
Filed June 24, 2026
The Polymarket contract hit 86.55% at 13:30 UTC Wednesday, up 85.2pp from its 1.35% session open, with noon ET resolution hours away.
Filed June 24, 2026
Elon Musk's 115-139 tweet bracket faded to 21.8% at 00:44 UTC Wednesday; the sibling 90-114 bracket now commands 75.2% with 15 hours to the noon-ET close.
Filed June 24, 2026
Elon's 48-hour tweet-count bracket, last sampled at 62.2% at 22:35 UTC Tuesday, has climbed 59.1pp from a 3.1% session open with 17 hours until Wednesday noon-ET close.
Filed June 24, 2026
Elon Musk's 90-114 tweet bracket priced at 52.35% as of 19:39 UTC Tuesday — up 49.3 percentage points from a 3.05% open — after MuskMeter logged 75 posts in the last 24 hours.
Filed June 23, 2026
Elon Musk's 65-89 tweet bracket for the June 22-24 window has plummeted to 26.5% at 17:40 UTC Tuesday — down 47pp from its 73.5% session high — as an elevated posting pace signals bracket-ceiling risk.
Filed June 23, 2026
Elon Musk's 200-219 tweet bracket sits at 39.5% as of 10:51 UTC Tuesday, up 22pp in 24 hours, as the June 16-23 counting window closes at 16:00 UTC today.
Filed June 23, 2026
Musk's tweet-count bracket peaked at 68.5% then fell to 62% at 20:12 UTC Monday, with roughly 20 hours to Tuesday's 12 PM ET close.
Filed June 22, 2026
Elon Musk's 40–64 tweet bracket sits at 89.5% at 10:41 UTC Monday with settlement just over five hours away at noon ET.
Filed June 22, 2026
Elon Musk's 40–64 tweet bracket stands at 89.5% as of 08:43 UTC Monday, up 19pp from 70.5% at the same hour Sunday with resolution seven hours away.
Filed June 22, 2026
Elon Musk's June 20–22 tweet-count bracket stands at 73.5% as of 02:59 UTC Monday, up 17pp over the past 24 hours, with counting closing at 16:00 UTC.
Filed June 22, 2026
The 180–199 Musk tweet bracket sits at 52.5% as of 15:36 UTC Sunday, up 16.0 points on the session with 48 hours to the Monday close.
Filed June 21, 2026
Elon Musk's 65-89 tweet bracket hits 76.5% as of 20:33 UTC Tuesday, up 31pp on the session, with settlement under 20 hours away.
Filed June 16, 2026
Elon Musk's 140-159 tweet bracket for the June 9–16 window hit 20.05% by 05:52 UTC Sunday — up 18.9 points in 24 hours as the xtracker running count nears the resolution range.
Filed June 14, 2026
At 54.65% at 21:54 UTC Thursday, Musk's 220-239 bracket holds the frontrunner spot with 18 hours to the Friday noon ET resolution.
Filed June 12, 2026
Elon Musk's 200-219 tweet bracket holds at 52.5% as of 12:18 UTC June 11 — 13 points above its 24-hour open — after the session high of 56.5% reversed twice before buyers stepped in.
Filed June 11, 2026
The US alien-confirmation contract fell to 10.5% as of 07:52 UTC Thursday — a 3-point drop from its 13.5% session open — as PURSUE file releases keep falling short of the official declaration required for YES resolution.
Filed June 11, 2026
The Polymarket contract for Elon Musk to post 200-219 tweets this week hit 56.5% at 04:47 UTC Thursday — up 30 points from the session open — as the window enters its final 35 hours before the Friday noon ET close.
Filed June 11, 2026
Elon Musk's 200-219 tweet bracket priced 53.5% Thursday, up 27 points in 24 hours, as the June 12 window close looms 38 hours away.
Filed June 11, 2026
The 180-199 tweet bracket for Elon Musk's June 5-12 Polymarket window hit 15.5% Wednesday evening — up 8 points in 24 hours — as recent pace data of ~23 posts per day leaves the final count in doubt.
Filed June 10, 2026
Elon Musk's 200-219 bracket sits at 39.5% as of 10:55 UTC Wednesday, up 15pp on the day as last week's 220-239 resolution anchors baseline conviction.
Filed June 10, 2026
The 40-64 tweet bracket sits at 56% as of 05:52 UTC Wednesday, up 12.5 points from Tuesday's open, with 10 hours until the noon ET resolution.
Filed June 10, 2026
The Polymarket contract on Musk posting 40–64 tweets in the June 8–10 window sits at 54.5% as of 21:39 UTC Tuesday, up 20 points on the day with the window closing Wednesday at noon ET.
Filed June 10, 2026
Musk's 65-89 tweet bracket sits at 47.5% as of 16:28 UTC Tuesday — near dead-even with the 40-64 bracket as the window closes in roughly 23 hours.
Filed June 9, 2026
The Musk 180–199 bracket reached 73.5% at 06:28 UTC Friday — a 31.5-point surge from Thursday's open — with nine hours remaining to resolution.
Filed June 5, 2026
The Musk 160–179 bracket stands at 11.95% as of 05:07 UTC Thursday — the tracker shows 155 posts and ~35 hours left, projecting past the 179 ceiling.
Filed June 4, 2026
As of 02:08 UTC Thursday, the market prices Trump appearing at any 2026 NBA Finals game at 78%, pulling back from a 91.5% session peak as profit-taking follows a bipartisan political push.
Filed June 4, 2026
Elon Musk's 180–199 tweet bracket for May 29–June 5 trades at 41.5% as of 21:44 UTC Wednesday, up +13pp in 24 hours, as the running post count reaches 138 with 42 hours left.
Filed June 4, 2026
Musk's 40–64 bracket trades at 0.05% as of 13:45 UTC Wednesday — down 64.95pp from session open — as the sibling 65–89 bracket prices 82.5%.
Filed June 3, 2026
Elon Musk's June 1–3 65–89 tweet bracket stands at 92.5% Wednesday, up 69pp from its 0.235 opening, as count pace signals the range.
Filed June 3, 2026
The Musk 40–64 tweet bracket sits at 5.7% as of 08:24 UTC Wednesday — down 63pp — while the 65–89 sibling surges to 93%.
Filed June 3, 2026
The 160-179 bracket has climbed to 36.8% as of 02:03 UTC Wednesday, up 16.65pp in 24 hours, with the xtracker showing 108 posts.
Filed June 3, 2026
Musk's May 29–June 5 160-179 bracket printed 33.3¢ at 23:51 UTC Tuesday — up 16.7 points — with 108 posts tracked and 64 hours remaining.
Filed June 3, 2026
The 160-179 tweet bracket stands at 89.25% as of 14:54 UTC, up 66.2pp in 24 hours on $411,678 in volume with 66 minutes to the June 2 closing bell.
Filed June 2, 2026
The 140–159-tweet bracket priced at 66.1% at 08:18 UTC Tuesday, down from a session peak of 94.35%, with the tracker count at 124 and 16 posts needed before the 16:00 UTC close.
Filed June 2, 2026
Elon Musk's 140-159 tweet bracket trades at 91.5% with 10 hours until the June 2 noon ET deadline, up 36.75 points in 24 hours.
Filed June 2, 2026
The 140-159 bracket stands at 89.65% as of 05:12 UTC June 2 — up 36.7 points in 24 hours as block buyers pressed the count-at-124 window through US overnight hours.
Filed June 2, 2026
The 140-159 bracket sits at 67.2% as of 23:48 UTC Monday, up +24pp on the day with the June 2 noon ET deadline roughly 16 hours away.
Filed June 2, 2026
The 140-159 tweets bracket climbed 29.3 points to 74.3% as of 17:41 UTC Monday, with fewer than 23 hours until the June 2 noon ET resolution.
Filed June 1, 2026
The sub-40 tweet contract stands at 79.5% as of 08:43 UTC Monday, up 38 percentage points in 24 hours with the June 1 noon ET cutoff approaching.
Filed June 1, 2026
Polymarket prices the 240-259 tweet-count bin at 29.35% at 09:29 UTC May 26, up 11.65pp on $335k of 24h volume.
Filed May 26, 2026