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Elections, control of government and the contracts that price them.
60 reports on the wire
Polymarket prices Putin out of the Russian presidency before year-end at 12.5% as of early Saturday — up 3 percentage points from the 24-hour low — after an overnight block buy tests a structural ceiling.
By Marcus Reed · Filed June 27, 2026
The US-Iran final-deal market clawed back to 23.5% Wednesday on YES dip buying off a 22.5% session low, as the enrichment stalemate persists.
Filed June 24, 2026
US-Iran August 31 nuclear deal market hit session-low 22.5% as of 17:45 UTC Wednesday, down 5pp as enrichment-duration disputes persist.
Filed June 24, 2026
The US-Iran final nuclear deal market sits at 22.5% as of 12:30 UTC Wednesday, down 6 percentage points in 24 hours on widening enrichment impasses.
Filed June 24, 2026
The Starmer 'next leader out' contract holds at 79% as of 05:33 UTC Tuesday, a 50.5pp overnight surge on his June 22 resignation announcement.
Filed June 23, 2026
Polymarket's Starmer-before-2027 contract sits at 79% as of 23:43 UTC Monday, up 39.5 points from its 24-hour open after his resignation announcement.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Starmer June 22 ouster market sits at 83.5% as of 07:33 UTC Monday, up 19pp over 24 hours, with noon UTC resolution under five hours away.
Filed June 22, 2026
Starmer's June 22 ouster contract sits at 68.5% at 05:37 UTC Monday, retreating from an 84.5% sampled peak as noon UTC resolution approaches in under seven hours.
Filed June 22, 2026
Strait of Hormuz June YES at 5.5% Monday — down 2pp — as mine-clearance timelines swamp the eight-day window to resolution.
Filed June 22, 2026
Starmer ouster contract holds at 83.5% as of 06:36 UTC Sunday, up 18.5pp on the day, as Chequers exit reports drive sustained YES buying.
Filed June 21, 2026
The June 21 Iran-meeting contract is at 92.9% Sunday morning, up 39.85 points in 24 hours on Pakistan's in-person Burgenstock confirmation.
Filed June 21, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract fell to 6.5% as of 00:21 UTC Sunday, surrendering Saturday's 10.5% session high as an eight-week mine-clearance timeline renders the June 30 deadline structurally unreachable.
Filed June 21, 2026
Starmer's ouster contract sits at 88.5% as of 23:10 UTC Saturday after The Observer's resignation report fired a 16pp surge.
Filed June 21, 2026
The US-Iran June 21 meeting contract hit 94.05% at 22:54 UTC Saturday — up 86.75 points on the day — as Iran's delegation arrived in Switzerland for Burgenstock talks.
Filed June 21, 2026
The June 21 Iran diplomatic-meeting contract reached 87.1% Saturday evening as Pakistan confirmed Burgenstock talks with Witkoff and Araghchi both en route to Switzerland.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US–Iran meeting market hit 84.05% as of 19:36 UTC Saturday, up 69.5pp in 24 hours as Pakistan confirmed Sunday Burgenstock talks.
Filed June 20, 2026
US-Iran June 21 meeting market at 85.65% as of 17:32 UTC Saturday, with Witkoff, Kushner, and Araghchi all headed to Burgenstock for talks.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US-Iran meeting contract reached 81.65% at 14:26 UTC Saturday, up 64.25pp in 24 hours, as Iranian FM Araghchi joined Witkoff en route to Switzerland.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US–Iran in-person meeting contract hit 62.45% at 13:31 UTC Saturday as Witkoff departed for Switzerland to pursue a qualifying face-to-face session.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's July 31 enrichment-halt contract sits at 13.5% Saturday, down 39 points in 24 hours, as the signed US-Iran MOU mandates downblending — not a centrifuge halt.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's zero-enrichment pledge sits at 5.5% Saturday morning, down 49 percentage points in 24 hours after the June 18 US-Iran MOU committed to stockpile downblending only, not ending enrichment.
Filed June 20, 2026
Starmer's ouster contract retreats to 55.5% at 10:20 UTC Saturday, down from the 0.725 overnight peak as Burnham's cabinet rejection stalls the challenge.
Filed June 20, 2026
The US-Iran June 21 diplomatic meeting contract reached 46.75% at 04:08 UTC Saturday, up 19.25pp on the day after a session swinging from a 5.95% floor to a 64.2% peak on Iran FM's pledge of talks 'in the coming days.'
Filed June 20, 2026
The Starmer ouster contract hit 67.5% at 23:56 UTC Friday, up 36.5pp on the day, after Burnham's Makerfield by-election win cleared the formal path to a Labour leadership challenge.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 30 US–Iran meeting contract hit 76.1% at 23:00 UTC Friday — up 18pp in 30 minutes — after Washington called today's Burgenstock cancellation a delay.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's enrichment-end contract is at 23.5% as of 20:06 UTC Friday, down 31 points from Thursday's 0.545 open, as the June 18 MOU commits Tehran to downblending — not cessation — of its enriched stockpile.
Filed June 19, 2026
Iran's uranium-enrichment-end contract was at 46.5% as of 12:33 UTC Friday, down 13 points from its 24-hour open, as the signed MOU's downblending language falls short of the YES resolution threshold.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Hormuz June normalization contract hit 12.5¢ at 05:41 UTC Friday — down 9 points in 24 hours — as AIS shows near-zero traffic and the transit MOU's drafts remain disavowed.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Hormuz June-normalization YES is at 13.5% on Friday, down 9 points in 24 hours, as mine-clearance timelines foreclose any end-of-month recovery.
Filed June 19, 2026
The uranium-enrichment compliance market priced at 69% at 02:17 UTC Friday as the signed US-Iran MOU requires only stockpile downblending — no formal zero-enrichment pledge.
Filed June 19, 2026
Polymarket's June 19 US-Iran diplomatic-meeting contract fell to 21% as of 01:21 UTC Friday, down 41 points on the session.
Filed June 19, 2026
The 'Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?' contract reached 73.95% at 19:42 UTC Wednesday — up 63.9pp in 24 hours — after Israeli strikes forced Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation to issue an immediate, indefinite suspension of all flight operations at Imam Khomeini International Airport.
Filed June 17, 2026
The Israel x Iran June 30 peace market is at 14.15% Wednesday afternoon, down 1.75pp on the session, as Lebanon withdrawal deadlock blocks any bilateral deal.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's zero-enrichment compliance contract dropped to 45.5% as of 15:10 UTC Wednesday, now 54 points below the 99.85% US-Iran peace deal.
Filed June 17, 2026
Polymarket prices the Iran accord text-release at 29.5% as of 13:17 UTC Wednesday after CNN published the 14-point draft but the White House and Tehran both disputed its authenticity.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's enrichment-end contract hit 56.5% at 12:00 UTC Wednesday, up 17 points on the session, still 43.35pp below the near-certain US-Iran peace deal at 99.85%.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's enrichment-compliance contract priced at 47.5% at 10:08 UTC Wednesday, 52.35 points below the US-Iran peace deal at 99.85%, as the framework explicitly allows enrichment to continue for nonmilitary purposes.
Filed June 17, 2026
Israel-Iran peace-deal contract fell to 11.4% at 09:24 UTC Wednesday, down 3.25 points in 24 hours as Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon block the bilateral track.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's enrichment compliance market prints at 49.5% as of 08:10 UTC Wednesday, June 17—50 points below the 99.85% US-Iran peace framework—pricing a precise gap between deal-signed and pledge-made.
Filed June 17, 2026
The 'Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment?' contract sits at 17.35% as of 07:45 UTC Wednesday, down 9.15pp on the session, as the US-Iran deal crystallises around a 15-year suspension rather than US consent to continued enrichment.
Filed June 17, 2026
Hormuz end-of-June recovery prices at 18.5% Wednesday morning after YES takers lifted the mid, blocked by a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline.
Filed June 17, 2026
Polymarket's Iran enrichment-end contract is at 59.5% Wednesday morning—40 percentage points below the US-Iran peace deal now priced at 99.95%.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's uranium-enrichment market sits at 51.5% as of 03:34 UTC Wednesday — up 23 points in 24 hours — on Trump's enrichment-suspension claim.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's uranium enrichment-end contract sits at 39.5% as of 19:40 UTC Tuesday, with the full deal text unreleased and zero enrichment explicitly ruled out by Tehran's own officials.
Filed June 16, 2026
At 43.5% as of 15:22 UTC Tuesday, the Iran enrichment-end contract sits 55.75 points beneath the 99.25% US-Iran peace-deal market—with the deal's unreleased text leaving the key nuclear-compliance clause unconfirmed.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Polymarket contract pricing Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic back to normal by June 30 is at 17.5% as of 15:12 UTC Tuesday, down 9 points on the day, after real-time AIS data confirmed no significant tanker movement since the Iran deal.
Filed June 16, 2026
Hormuz June-end contract at 17.5% at 09:15 UTC Tuesday, down 12 points in 24 hours, as 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timelines foreclose June resolution.
Filed June 16, 2026
Iran's enrichment-halt market reached 39.5% at 06:48 UTC Tuesday, up 7pp in 24 hours, as the June 15 accord defers nuclear specifics to a follow-on negotiating round.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Hormuz June recovery contract fell to a fresh session low of 19.5% at 05:09 UTC Tuesday as six-month mine-clearance estimates block the YES case despite the US-Iran accord.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Israel-Iran June 30 peace market sits at 11.85% as of 05:00 UTC Tuesday, 86.8 percentage points below the US-Iran accord at 98.65%, as Trump's deal explicitly excludes bilateral normalization with Tel Aviv.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 sits at 10.05% as of 00:34 UTC Tuesday — down 14.25pp in 24 hours — as Trump's completion of the bilateral US-Iran accord confirmed Israel was never at the negotiating table.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Hormuz July 31 recovery contract priced at 63.5% as of 23:35 UTC Monday, with mine-clearance and insurance barriers holding back the physical traffic recovery.
Filed June 16, 2026
Trump's 'deal complete' declaration pushed the June-15 YES contract to 94.95% as of 23:20 UTC Monday — still 5pp from par with fewer than five hours to Polymarket's 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Iran-US June-15 peace-deal contract sits at 94.1% as of 22:18 UTC Monday, up 16.2 percentage points in 24 hours, after Iran's SNSC confirmed the MOU and a Geneva signing is set for June 19.
Filed June 16, 2026
The June-15 US–Iran peace contract sits at 94% as of 22:03 UTC Monday, up 19.7pp after Trump and Ghalibaf signed an MOU.
Filed June 16, 2026
The June-15 Iran deal contract sits at 94.8% as of 17:07 UTC Monday — up 74pp in 24 hours as Trump posted on Truth Social that the deal is 'complete' — with a 5pp adjudication gap tied to the June 19 formal signing.
Filed June 15, 2026
The US-Iran June 15 peace-deal contract climbed to 93.9% at 15:04 UTC Monday — up from 11.25% at the session open — with Trump declaring the accord 'complete' and less than 13 hours to the 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Filed June 15, 2026
The June-15 US-Iran peace-deal contract stands at 86.85% as of 09:47 UTC Monday, up 63pp in 24 hours after Trump declared the accord complete.
Filed June 15, 2026
At 93.5% as of 09:19 UTC Monday, the June-30 US–Iran deal contract has surged 43 points in 24 hours on Trump's deal-complete declaration.
Filed June 15, 2026
The June-30 US-Iran permanent peace deal contract sits at 93.5% at 04:39 UTC Monday — up 44pp in 24 hours — as the June-15 deadline passes and a Switzerland signing is set for June 19.
Filed June 15, 2026