Every story is a market. Every market has a price.
Elections, control of government and the contracts that price them.
17 reports on the wire
Polymarket prices the May 31 internet-restoration question at 59.4% at 03:49 UTC May 27, down 14pp from PPC's 74.6% snapshot three hours earlier.
Filed 8h ago
Polymarket's May 31 Iran-internet contract printed 0.746 at 00:42 UTC after NetBlocks confirmed a partial reopening of the 88-day blackout.
Filed 11h ago
Polymarket's Iran May 31 airspace-closure market is pricing 24.15% as of May 26 morning, down ~16pp from PPC's 40.5% snapshot three days back.
Filed 1d ago
Polymarket's May 31 Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 39.5% as of 08:27 UTC Tuesday, down 12.5pp from yesterday's 52% framework-post close.
Filed 1d ago
The contract on a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by tonight's 11:59 PM ET deadline trades at 8.5% as of 05:17 UTC May 26, down 7 points on $635k of 24h volume.
Filed 1d ago
Polymarket's May 31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped +14.5pp in 24 hours to 52% by 20:58 UTC May 25 on $509k of volume.
Filed 2d ago
Polymarket's June 15 US-Iran peace-deal market sits at 53.5% Monday afternoon, up 8 points in 24 hours after Rubio signaled a 60-day framework.
Filed 2d ago
Seven US-Iran contracts moved opposite directions on May 25, 2026 — the ceasefire was bid to 91.5% while the May 31 treaty market wrote itself off at 30.5%, a 61-point gap.
Filed 2d ago
Polymarket prices Trump's odds of declaring the Hormuz blockade lifted by May 31 at 27.5% as of May 25, down 37.5 points overnight.
Filed 2d ago
Polymarket's May 31 US-Iran ceasefire-extension market sits at 33.5% as of 05:58 UTC May 25, after a one-day collapse of 41.5 points.
Filed 2d ago
Polymarket put Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30 at 47.5% at 21:51 UTC Sunday, down 15.5 points in 24 hours on $666k.
Filed 3d ago
Polymarket put a permanent US-Iran deal by May 31 at 23.5% Sunday afternoon, down 40 points in 24 hours on $5.24M of volume.
Filed 3d ago
Polymarket's deadline market trades at 9.5% as of 21:21 UTC Sunday, down 47.5 points in 24 hours on $7.36M after Trump tells negotiators not to rush.
Filed 3d ago
A 48-hour Polymarket contract on a permanent US–Iran peace deal sits at 41.5% as of 13:41 UTC May 24, after running from 11.5% to a 68% high inside a day.
Filed 3d ago
The May 31 peace-deal market closed Saturday at 63.5% as of 21:37 UTC May 23, up from 17.5% twenty-four hours earlier on $5.98M of volume — the day Trump said a framework was 'largely negotiated.'
Filed 4d ago
Polymarket puts a May 31 Iranian airspace closure at 40.5% as of 15:26 UTC May 23, up 19 points in 24 hours after a wild overnight session.
Filed 4d ago
The May 24 Yes spiked from 7.5% to a 99.25% peak before falling to 40.7% at 10:41 UTC May 23 on $4.51M of 24-hour volume.
Filed 4d ago