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31 reports on the wire
The Polymarket exactly-4 M6.5+ earthquake bracket climbed to 63.25% at 00:24 UTC Saturday, up 32.1 percentage points in 24 hours, as a Philippines quake appeared to claim the resolution window's fourth qualifying slot.
By Tomas Vega · Filed June 27, 2026
Venezuela's M7.2-M7.5 doublet fires the exactly-10 M7+ bracket 71.1pp to 76% as of 13:54 UTC Thursday, with five days to June 30 resolution.
Filed June 25, 2026
The 11-earthquake YES bracket holds at 43% as of 08:30 UTC Thursday, up 29pp from 24 hours ago, after twin Venezuelan shocks drove a 76% overnight high before a volatile descent.
Filed June 25, 2026
The 11+ M5.5+ earthquake bracket for June 22–28 sits at 42% as of 02:16 UTC Thursday, up 27.5 points after Venezuela's M7.5/M7.2 doublet confirmed four seismic events.
Filed June 25, 2026
Venezuela's M7.2 and M7.5 appear to have pushed the USGS M7+ running tally to 10, firing the exactly-10 bracket to 76% at 01:21 UTC Thursday.
Filed June 25, 2026
The exactly-nine M7.0+ earthquake market priced at 35% at 20:42 UTC Wednesday—up 7 points on the day—with six confirmed 2026 major quakes and six days to resolution.
Filed June 24, 2026
Despite a government-backed UAP science advisory council and three file drops since May, the US alien-confirmation market held at 9.5% as of 16:34 UTC Wednesday.
Filed June 24, 2026
The US June tornado market priced 81.1% YES by 14:39 UTC Wednesday, a 71-percentage-point, 24-hour surge driven by an SPC Enhanced Risk forecast and Mrage's 694-share overnight block.
Filed June 24, 2026
The Polymarket contract on US alien disclosure held at 9.5% as of 13:42 UTC Wednesday, flat across its full 24-hour session on $106,267 in volume.
Filed June 24, 2026
The 2026 second-hottest-year contract climbed 6pp to 74.5% Tuesday as NOAA's mid-June El Niño declaration and a concentrated 811-share YES buy cemented climate-trajectory conviction.
Filed June 24, 2026
Polymarket's NASA GISTEMP June 2026 temperature bracket stands at 85.5% as of 22:34 UTC Monday, up 31 percentage points from 54.5%, on concentrated YES tape with no confirmed mid-month data behind it.
Filed June 23, 2026
Polymarket's earthquake YES contract sat at 87.5% at 19:02 UTC Friday after USGS confirmed nine qualifying M5.5+ events and the contract whipsawed from a 0.93 session peak to 0.755 before recovering.
Filed June 19, 2026
The June 15-21 earthquake count market sits at 62.5% YES at 05:40 UTC Wednesday, driven up 9.5pp by back-to-back M6+ quakes in Indonesia and China.
Filed June 17, 2026
Three major quakes in the first hours of the June 15–21 window spiked YES to an 83.5% peak; it sits at 63.5% Wednesday.
Filed June 17, 2026
The U.S. measles-threshold contract trades at 46.5% as of 11:03 UTC Monday, down 14.5 points from Sunday, with 77 confirmed cases still needed before the June 30 deadline.
Filed June 15, 2026
The measles-2150 contract trades at 71.5% as of 01:46 UTC Saturday, up 28.5pp on the day, after CDC confirmed 2,073 U.S. cases — just 77 short of the resolution threshold.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Camurus Oclaiz prediction market is pricing FDA approval at 89.25% as of 01:37 UTC Wednesday, up 9.75 points in 24 hours as the PDUFA decision deadline arrives.
Filed June 10, 2026
The US alien-confirmation market holds 13.5% as of June 9 as PURSUE's third file tranche readies — data alone cannot clear the resolution bar.
Filed June 9, 2026
The US alien-confirmation market holds at 13.5% Monday — two PURSUE tranches, hundreds of declassified UAP files, and still zero named-official statements of extraterrestrial existence.
Filed June 8, 2026
The US alien-confirmation market held at 13.5% as of 00:10 UTC Monday, with two separate bounces to 0.145 absorbed by structural NO conviction.
Filed June 8, 2026
The US alien-confirmation market sits at 13.5% as of 12:42 UTC Sunday, June 7, retreating from a brief 14.5% session high as YES sellers neutralize PURSUE momentum.
Filed June 7, 2026
The US alien-confirmation contract sits at 14.5% Sunday morning — flat to its 24-hour open — as two PURSUE document batches have failed to clear the definitive-statement threshold the market requires for resolution.
Filed June 7, 2026
The US alien confirmation contract holds at 14.5% as of Sunday morning, flat on its session as two PURSUE file drops have drawn explicit no-ET disclaimers and NASA's chief has decoupled disclosure from confirmation.
Filed June 7, 2026
The Hantavirus pandemic market eased to 5.85% by 02:15 UTC Sunday, off a 6.05% session open, as WHO's 'low' risk rating holds firm.
Filed June 7, 2026
Hantavirus pandemic contract sits at 6.05% as of June 6, 2026, with WHO reporting an Rt of 0.7 for the Andes virus cruise-ship cluster.
Filed June 6, 2026
The Hantavirus 2026 pandemic contract holds at 6.05% as of 01:10 UTC Friday, unchanged for five hours, as WHO's effective reproduction number stays at 0.7.
Filed June 5, 2026
Hantavirus pandemic contract at 6.05% as of 20:06 UTC Thursday, down 0.5pp on the session as WHO data show the cluster's R0 at 0.7.
Filed June 4, 2026
The US alien confirmation market held at 15.5% as of 10:31 UTC Wednesday, unmoved for 24 hours despite Trump's ongoing UFO-declassification drive.
Filed June 3, 2026
The U.S. alien-confirmation market holds at 15.5% Tuesday, pricing the gap between Trump's UFO file releases and the definitive official statement the contract requires.
Filed June 3, 2026
The June 30 measles threshold contract sits at 22.5% at 22:01 UTC Tuesday, down 29 points as the CDC count stalls at 1,983.
Filed June 3, 2026
YES at 39.9% as of 03:02 UTC Friday, recovering from an 18.5% low, with the CDC count 48 short of the May 31 threshold.
Filed May 29, 2026