NOAA El Niño Alert Locks 2026 Second-Hottest Year Odds at Session-High 74.5%
The 2026 second-hottest-year contract climbed 6pp to 74.5% Tuesday as NOAA's mid-June El Niño declaration and a concentrated 811-share YES buy cemented climate-trajectory conviction.
The 2026 second-hottest-year-on-record market reached 74.5% as of 22:45 UTC Tuesday—a session high (max_price 0.745, last sampled at 22:45 UTC)—up 6 percentage points from its 0.685 open. The session dipped to a floor of 0.665, last sampled at 10:58 UTC, before a sharp afternoon reversal pushed prices to a new peak.
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