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Rates, recessions and the macro contracts traders watch closest.
60 reports on the wire
The July 15 Hormuz recovery market sat at 30.5% at 06:02 UTC Saturday, down 11 percentage points from Friday's open, as mine-clearance timelines far exceed the remaining contract window.
By Elena Brandt · Filed June 27, 2026
Hormuz July YES holds at 47.5% as of 01:18 UTC Friday, pinned by a mine-clearance timeline that lags the peace accord by months.
Filed June 26, 2026
Hormuz July YES has climbed to 56.5% as of 16:41 UTC Thursday, adding 11pp as ceasefire optimism outruns the mine-clearance clock.
Filed June 25, 2026
Hormuz June YES hit 14.25% Thursday—up 11.75pp from its 2.5% open—as the Islamabad Memorandum fires conviction but IMF Portwatch records just 5 transits.
Filed June 25, 2026
The Hormuz July-31 contract climbed to 53.5% at 10:41 UTC Thursday on record post-accord weekend tanker traffic, with central-channel mines the remaining wildcard.
Filed June 25, 2026
Hormuz July YES is at 48.5% as of 08:46 UTC Thursday; post-war traffic hit a weekend high but confirmed mines block the central channel from full recovery.
Filed June 25, 2026
Hormuz July YES priced at 46.5% at 04:01 UTC Wednesday, down 2pp from Tuesday's open, as daily transits at 14–20% of pre-conflict levels leave the ≥60-call resolution bar more than double current run-rates.
Filed June 24, 2026
Hormuz July YES at 46.5% at 15:20 UTC Tuesday, down 5pp, as mine-clearance timelines and war-risk insurance hold recovery below even money.
Filed June 23, 2026
The 2026 Fed rate-hike contract sits at 57.5% as of 09:47 UTC on Tuesday, June 23, down 3pp from its 60.5% session high, as the FOMC's near-even internal split blocks a decisive repricing.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz July 31 recovery market prices at 48.5% Tuesday morning, as a two-month mine-clearance estimate runs against a 38-day deadline.
Filed June 23, 2026
The July 31 Hormuz normalization contract holds at 48.5% Tuesday with technical demining talks beginning in Switzerland and CENTCOM reporting 55 daily transits.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz July 31 normalization contract holds at 48.5% Tuesday — near contested — as mine-clearance timelines override the Iran peace-accord rally.
Filed June 23, 2026
Hormuz July 31 YES holds at 48.5% as of 04:50 UTC Tuesday, up 8pp from Monday's open, as the Pentagon cites a six-month mine-clearance timeline.
Filed June 23, 2026
Hormuz July 31 YES priced at 48.5% as of 03:30 UTC Tuesday, up 8pp overnight, as mine-clearance timelines cap the peace-accord catalyst.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz-by-June-30 recovery contract priced at 6.5% as of 00:26 UTC Tuesday — its 24-hour session high — with mine clearance not yet started, transit volumes far below the ≥60 threshold, and seven days to deadline.
Filed June 23, 2026
Hormuz July-31 YES climbs to 48.5% at 23:36 UTC Monday, up 9pp from 39.5%, as US-Iran Switzerland talks yield a maritime safe-passage mechanism.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz June-recovery contract sits at 6.5% as of 21:27 UTC Monday — 1pp above Sunday's close — as a two-month mine-clearance timeline erases any prospect of the 60-vessel transit threshold by June 30.
Filed June 23, 2026
The Hormuz July 31 recovery contract trades at 49.5% as of 19:22 UTC Monday, up 9pp from the session open, after a 51.5% session high faded on mine-clearance math.
Filed June 22, 2026
The July 31 Strait of Hormuz normalization contract priced at 50.5% at 15:02 UTC Monday after a +10pp session surge, sitting near even money while mine clearance timelines and elevated insurance costs do the work politics cannot.
Filed June 22, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz return-to-normal YES contract held at 5.5% at 11:49 UTC Monday as shipping operators project a four-month wait before transit normalizes.
Filed June 22, 2026
The Hormuz June normalization contract holds at 6.5% as of 13:49 UTC Sunday, with a two-month mine-clearance timeline and war-risk premiums well above the pre-war baseline sealing NO.
Filed June 21, 2026
At 7.5% as of 2026-06-21T05:22 UTC, the Hormuz June 30 normalization contract prices near-certain failure — a six-month mine-clearance clock is overriding a signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding with nine days to the deadline.
Filed June 21, 2026
Iran's 'end all enrichment by June 30' contract is at 4.5% as of 17:39 UTC Saturday, down 38pp in 24 hours, as the signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding commits only to downblending — not the formal zero-enrichment pledge the contract requires.
Filed June 20, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June traffic recovery contract reached 10.5% at 12:35 UTC Saturday—its 24-hour session high—but six-month mine timelines still make normalization a 1-in-9.5 shot.
Filed June 20, 2026
Hormuz YES holds at 9.5% Saturday morning, up 1pp in 24 hours, as mine-clearance timelines block June normalization regardless of the Iran peace accord.
Filed June 20, 2026
Polymarket's Strait of Hormuz traffic-normalization contract priced YES at 8.5% as of 02:31 UTC Saturday — down 6 points in 24 hours — as a two-month mine-clearance timeline dwarfs the June 30 deadline.
Filed June 20, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract stands at 8.5% at 23:19 UTC Friday, down 6pp from a 14.5% open, as six-month mine-clearance timelines override the Iran peace accord.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's enrichment-end market fell to 19.5% at 20:56 UTC Friday, down 44 points in 24 hours as the MOU locked in dilution not elimination.
Filed June 20, 2026
The Polymarket July Fed rate-hike contract is at 26.05% as of 10:38 UTC Friday — up 10.3 percentage points in 24 hours after nine FOMC members signaled a 2026 rate increase in Chair Warsh's debut dot plot.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-30 recovery contract has fallen to 9.5% as of 07:25 UTC on June 19, down 9pp in the 24-hour window, as mine-clearance timelines overwhelm the US-Iran peace deal's momentum.
Filed June 19, 2026
The July Fed hold trades at 71.5% Friday, 8pp below Thursday's opening, as the FOMC's nine hawkish dots signal a possible 2026 rate hike.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Polymarket contract pricing a July Fed hold sits at 71.5% as of 05:33 UTC Friday, down 8pp in 24 hours after nine FOMC officials signaled continued rate hikes.
Filed June 19, 2026
At 14.5% as of 02:24 UTC Friday, the Hormuz June YES contract reflects mine-clearance timelines shipping executives say will take weeks, not 11 days.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-normalization contract priced at 14.5% as of 22:00 UTC Thursday, down 7.0 points on the session after only seven vessels transited since the June 15 accord.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-recovery contract holds at 18.5% on Wednesday, net 2pp above Tuesday's opening low, as a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline and 10-to-40x war-risk insurance surge outpace the 13 days left to resolution.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's uranium-enrichment compliance contract sits at 53.5% as of 14:28 UTC Wednesday, up 7.5 points in 24 hours, as the US-Iran MOU defers all enrichment specifics to the 60-day negotiation window ahead.
Filed June 17, 2026
Hormuz's June recovery contract trades at 17.5% as of 03:57 UTC Wednesday, pinned by mine-clearance and insurance barriers that outlast the Iran deal bounce.
Filed June 17, 2026
The Hormuz June recovery contract held at 17.5% as of 19:54 UTC Tuesday, down 4 percentage points from Monday's session open.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Hormuz June YES contract sat at 18.5% at 09:47 UTC Tuesday, down 11 percentage points in 24 hours as mine-clearance timelines and insurance barriers override Iran's peace accord.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery YES contract is at 17.5% as of 09:06 UTC Tuesday—down 12pp in 24 hours—with mine-clearance timelines of up to six months and 1–4% per-transit insurance premiums locking out a June resolution.
Filed June 16, 2026
Hormuz's end-of-June contract is at 17.5% at 08:25 UTC Tuesday, down 13 pp from Monday's open, as mine-clearance timelines block any June 30 YES.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-recovery contract reached 17.5% at 07:07 UTC Tuesday — 13pp below Monday's 30.5% session peak — as mine clearance and war-risk insurance maintain a structural ceiling on YES.
Filed June 16, 2026
Hormuz June recovery priced at 18.5% at 06:01 UTC Tuesday — off 11.5 points — as mines and insurance hold what the Iran accord cannot resolve.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Hormuz June contract hit 18.5% at 05:22 UTC Tuesday, down 11 points from Monday's 0.295 open, as a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline makes the June 30 deadline unreachable.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-recovery contract sits at 21.5% as of 19:23 UTC Monday, off a 35.5% session high; mine-clearance timelines and 8% war-risk premiums maintain the structural ceiling.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz July 31 recovery contract priced YES at 64% as of 18:17 UTC Monday, up 13.5 points on the session after Trump's Iran peace deal stalled against physical mine-clearance timelines.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract trades at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday as 40-50 day mine-clearance timelines block any June 30 resolution.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Hormuz recovery contract holds at 29.5% Monday, blocked below 30% by mine-clearance timelines and insurance-premium spikes despite the ceasefire.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery market stands at 29.5% as of 09:30 UTC Monday, up 7 points over 24 hours but pinned below a contested 30.5% ceiling by demining timelines and elevated insurance costs.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract holds at 29.5% as of 05:58 UTC Monday — up 7pp in 24 hours, still far below even-money.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery market priced YES at 29.5% at 04:17 UTC Monday after a volatile session swinging from a 0.125 floor to a 0.355 ceiling and back.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Hormuz traffic-recovery contract holds at 26.5% as of 02:00 UTC Monday, up 6pp on Iran deal news but anchored by mine-clearance timelines that stretch well past June 30.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract surged late Sunday before retreating to 25.5% at 22:42 UTC, as insurance costs and mine-clearance timelines continue to cap the YES case.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 holds at 22.5% as of 04:56 UTC Sunday, anchored by war-risk insurance running 4,000 times pre-conflict levels and a six-month mine-clearance estimate.
Filed June 14, 2026
Hormuz recovery probability sits at 20.5% as of 02:05 UTC Sunday, up 3 points on the day but structurally capped by 12–32× pre-conflict insurance premiums.
Filed June 14, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract trades at 23.5% as of 00:53 UTC Sunday, with mine-clearance timelines and surging war-risk premiums capping the ceasefire's lift.
Filed June 14, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract is at 21.5% as of 15:01 UTC Saturday, up 5pp on the day, as insurance and mine-clearance walls hold firm on ceasefire day 7.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz traffic-recovery contract sat at 19.5% as of 14:00 UTC Saturday, pulling back from a 23% session high as mine-clearance timelines and war-risk insurance premiums cap any ceasefire-driven upside with 17 days until June 30.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz June-30 contract is at 19% as of 17:15 UTC Friday — up 11.5pp from open, capped by mine-clearance delays and war-risk premiums.
Filed June 12, 2026
Hormuz recovery odds stand at 22.5% at 15:27 UTC Friday, 7pp above a 15.5% mid-session mark and 16pp above the 6.5% session open.
Filed June 12, 2026