July Hold at 71.5% After Hawkish Dot Plot Drives Overnight Flush
The July Fed hold trades at 71.5% Friday, 8pp below Thursday's opening, as the FOMC's nine hawkish dots signal a possible 2026 rate hike.
The Polymarket contract on no rate change at the Fed's July 28–29 FOMC meeting is pricing at 71.5% as of 06:42 UTC Friday, down 8 percentage points from its Thursday opening of 0.795 — as covered when the repricing first landed. Thursday's session peaked at 0.815 across four consecutive prints from 10:40 through 11:52 UTC before sellers took over; an overnight flush carried the contract to a sampled session floor of 0.675 at 00:59 UTC before buyers stepped back in and restored it to the current level.
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