Nine Hawk Dots Drive July Hike Odds to 26% on Warsh's FOMC Debut
The Polymarket July Fed rate-hike contract is at 26.05% as of 10:38 UTC Friday — up 10.3 percentage points in 24 hours after nine FOMC members signaled a 2026 rate increase in Chair Warsh's debut dot plot.
The July Fed rate-hike contract is at 26.05% as of 10:38 UTC Friday, up 10.3pp from its 15.75¢ 24-hour open, as Kevin Warsh's June 17 FOMC debut reshuffled tightening expectations. The contract hit a session high of 29.8¢ overnight before consolidating near current levels; its session floor was 15.65¢.
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Economics July Hold at 71.5% After Hawkish Dot Plot Drives Overnight Flush
The July Fed hold trades at 71.5% Friday, 8pp below Thursday's opening, as the FOMC's nine hawkish dots signal a possible 2026 rate hike.
78¢implied——Filed June 19, 2026
Economics Fed July Hold Slides 8pp as Hawkish Dot Plot Bites
The Polymarket contract pricing a July Fed hold sits at 71.5% as of 05:33 UTC Friday, down 8pp in 24 hours after nine FOMC officials signaled continued rate hikes.
