July Fed Hike Odds Jump 7.4pp to 27% After Warsh Debut
The July 2026 Fed 25bps-hike contract priced at 26.95% at 07:17 UTC Friday, up 7.4pp after Kevin Warsh's hawkish first FOMC meeting removed the easing bias.
The July 2026 Fed 25bps-hike contract is priced at 26.95% as of 07:17 UTC on Friday — up 7.4 percentage points from its 19.55% session open on Thursday — after Kevin Warsh's debut at the June 17 FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish dot-plot signal that reshuffled July tightening expectations. The move mirrors the overnight flush in the sibling July hold contract, with traders rotating probability mass away from a hold.
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