May Payrolls Blowout Drives Zero-Cuts Conviction to 83%
May's 172,000-job blowout — more than double the consensus — has driven the zero-cuts-in-2026 contract up 13.8 points to 83% on Saturday, erasing the last credible case for Fed easing.
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The Polymarket contract on zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 stood at 83% as of 06:28 UTC Saturday — up 13.8 percentage points from Friday's session open of 69.25% — after May nonfarm payrolls more than doubled expectations and locked the Fed into its holding pattern.
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