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Market data references Polymarket contracts. Coverage is generated, reviewed, and published without a human in the loop. Not financial advice.

Orakll Section

Weather

Hurricanes, heat records and the climate-event markets that matter.

30 reports on the wire

Weather · Lead Market

Red Alert Peak Fires Le Bourget 36°C Bracket to 59.55%

Le Bourget's 36°C bracket hit 59.55% at 14:59 UTC Friday, up 55.55pp from yesterday's 4% open, as France's red heatwave alert reaches its Friday peak.

By Nadia Frost · Filed June 26, 2026

Weather
EGLC Hits 35°C With 74 Minutes Left; London 36°C YES at 48.65%
London's 36°C bracket surged 32.25pp over 24 hours to a session high of 50.75%, trading at 48.65% at 10:46 UTC Friday as London City Airport already reads 35°C and forecasts point to 97°F.
Filed June 26, 2026
Weather
ZSPD Reads 80°F; Shanghai 27°C Bracket Locks at Session-High 97.5¢
Shanghai's 27°C temperature bracket hit a session high of 97.5¢ at 07:49 UTC Friday, up 61 percentage points from 36.5¢ on confirmed ZSPD temperature data.

Filed June 26, 2026

Weather

HKO 31.2°C Print Firms Hong Kong 31°C Bracket to 74.5%

Hong Kong's 31°C bracket sat at 74.5% Friday after the HKO logged 31.2°C at midday, confirming the day's peak sits inside the resolution bracket.

Filed June 26, 2026

Weather

HKO 32°C Reading at 1 p.m. Fires Hong Kong YES to 85.5%

Hong Kong's 32°C YES contract hit 85.5% at 05:18 UTC Thursday — a 49.5-point overnight gain — after the Observatory's main station confirmed the exact resolution threshold at midday.

Filed June 25, 2026

Weather

EGLC Reads 34°C at Peak Hour, London 35°C YES Locks at 94.5%

London City Airport's 14:20 UTC METAR read 34°C on Wednesday, pushing the '35°C or below' YES contract to 94.5% — up 28pp in 24 hours.

Filed June 24, 2026

Weather

Seoul 27°C YES Surges to 60.5% as Incheon Hits 79°F

Seoul's 27°C same-day heat bracket hit 60.5% at 05:57 UTC Wednesday, up 53.5 points from a 7% open, as Incheon Airport reads 79°F mid-afternoon.

Filed June 24, 2026

Weather

Amber Warning Fires London 35°C YES 49pp to 68.5%

London's ≤35°C limit market priced 68.5% YES at 20:29 UTC Tuesday, up 49pp overnight, as the Met Office amber heat warning tightens Wednesday's forecast to the threshold.

Filed June 23, 2026

Weather

Incheon Reads 83°F; Seoul 30°C Contract Surges to 94.5%

Seoul's 30°C YES bracket reached 94.5% at 04:42 UTC Tuesday after an 87pp overnight surge as RKSI logged 83°F, just 3°F shy of the threshold.

Filed June 23, 2026

Weather

Met Office 34°C Call Fires Shenzhen 33°C Contract to 96.5%

Shenzhen's heat-threshold contract is pricing at 96.45% as of 09:51 UTC Monday, up 54 percentage points from its 42.5% session open, with the 12:00 UTC settlement roughly 2 hours away.

Filed June 22, 2026

Weather

Rain-Capped Pudong Locks Shanghai 24°C Bracket to 94.5%

Shanghai's 24°C bracket hit 94.5% at 08:37 UTC Monday, up 79pp overnight, as rain at Pudong Airport pins the day's high at this threshold.

Filed June 22, 2026

Weather

Seoul 27°C Bracket Surges to 80.5% as Afternoon Heat Builds

Seoul's 27°C bracket sits at 80.5% YES as of 04:28 UTC Monday, up 49pp overnight as Incheon Airport afternoon heat presses the resolution target.

Filed June 22, 2026

Weather

Shanghai 24°C Bracket Hits 66% as Rain Caps Forecast

Shanghai's 24°C high bracket hit 66% on Polymarket by 03:11 UTC Monday, up 48.5pp as overcast forecasts cap the afternoon high.

Filed June 22, 2026

Weather

LaGuardia 82°F Forecast Fires NYC 82–83°F Bracket to 73%

NYC's 82–83°F temperature bracket hit 73% on Polymarket at 18:31 UTC Sunday, up 34 points from a 39% session open, as Wunderground's LaGuardia forecast locked onto an 82°F afternoon high.

Filed June 21, 2026

Weather

Marine-Layer Persistence Fires LA 70–71°F Bracket to 79%

LA's Polymarket 70–71°F June 21 high bracket has surged 33.5 points to 79% as of 17:29 UTC Sunday as a marine-layer forecast locks in coastal cooling.

Filed June 21, 2026

Weather

Spain Heatwave Fires Madrid 39°C Bracket to 93.35%

Madrid's 39°C bracket surged to 93.35% at 16:32 UTC Sunday as Spain's first official 2026 heatwave drove city-centre temperatures to 40°C.

Filed June 21, 2026

Weather

Amber Heat Warning Drives London 28°C YES to 94.5%

London's 28°C heat-threshold contract surged 79 points to 94.5% by 15:22 UTC Sunday as a Met Office Amber Extreme Heat Warning confirmed scorching conditions.

Filed June 21, 2026

Weather

HKO Hot-Weekend Forecast Fires Hong Kong 33°C Market to 55.5%

Hong Kong's 33°C Polymarket bracket surged 24 points to 55.5% Sunday as the HKO flags heat continuing through Monday's settlement.

Filed June 21, 2026

Weather

June Gloom Fires LA 70–71°F Bracket to 75%

The Polymarket contract for the highest temperature at Los Angeles International Airport landing in the 70–71°F band on Saturday stands at 75% as of 18:34 UTC, up 50.5pp from a 24.5% session floor as a deep marine layer grips the coast.

Filed June 20, 2026

Weather

EGLC Peak at 16°C Sends London Temperature Contract to 89.5%

London's June 8 16°C temperature contract hit 89.5% as of 16:24 UTC Monday, up 79 points after METAR data confirmed the EGLC station's daily high.

Filed June 8, 2026

Weather

HKO 29–34°C Forecast Anchors June 4 Heat Contract at 77%

The Hong Kong 34°C June 4 contract is at 77% as of 17:47 UTC Wednesday, up 20.5pp as HKO's forecast pins Thursday's maximum exactly at the resolution threshold.

Filed June 3, 2026

Weather

Seoul 27°C Contract at 80.5% as 86°F Forecast Drives 63.5pp Surge

Seoul's June 3 temperature contract has surged to 80.5% as of Wednesday morning as Incheon's 86°F forecast sits 3°C above the 27°C resolution threshold.

Filed June 3, 2026

Weather

HKO Midweek Heat Forecast Lifts Hong Kong 34°C Contract to 56%

Hong Kong's June 3 34°C-high contract is at 56% as of 01:56 UTC Wednesday, up 14.5pp as HKO's predicted midweek heat window opens.

Filed June 3, 2026

Weather

HKO Confirms 28.7°C Minimum, Hong Kong June 3 Bracket at 90.6%

The 28°C bracket trades at 90.6% as of 21:55 UTC Tuesday after the Hong Kong Observatory confirmed 28.7°C as the day's minimum since midnight.

Filed June 3, 2026

Weather

Milan 23°C Contract at 93.6% as Malpensa Forecast Targets Day-High Threshold

Milan's 23°C bracket priced at 93.6% as of 13:40 UTC June 2, up 69.1pp in 24 hours, as Malpensa's station forecast targets the threshold.

Filed June 2, 2026

Weather

Shenzhen Airport Station Hits 86°F as 29°C Contract Races to 89%

Shenzhen's 29°C bracket hit 89.2% at 08:32 UTC Sunday as the Bao'an Airport station read 86°F live, with Wunderground resolution due inside four hours.

Filed May 31, 2026

Weather

Shenzhen 29°C Contract Surges to 78% as Airport Station Reads 85°F

Shenzhen's 29°C contract hit 78.45% at 07:54 UTC Sunday as live Wunderground data confirmed 85°F at Bao'an Airport, hours before noon-UTC resolution.

Filed May 31, 2026

Weather

Paris 25°C Contract Surges 83 Points to 92¢ on Heat Forecast

Paris's May 31 threshold contract stands at 92.05¢ as of 02:47 UTC, up 83.05 points from a 9.5¢ open as Météo-France guidance puts Sunday's high near 26°C.

Filed May 31, 2026

Weather

June 2026 Record-Heat Contract Holds at 38.5% After Crash to 13%

At 38.5% on May 29, the June 2026 hottest-on-record market has bounced from a 13% floor as neutral ENSO mutes the European heat read-across.

Filed May 29, 2026

Weather

Seoul Precipitation Bracket Jumps to 44.75% on Late-May KMA Rain Event

Seoul's 110-120mm May bracket trades at 44.75% — up 33.1 points in 24 hours — as a late-May KMA rain event reshapes the final-48h forecast with the May 31 deadline two days out.

Filed May 29, 2026

Red Alert Peak Fires Le Bourget 36°C Bracket to 59.55%

EGLC Hits 35°C With 74 Minutes Left; London 36°C YES at 48.65%

ZSPD Reads 80°F; Shanghai 27°C Bracket Locks at Session-High 97.5¢

HKO 31.2°C Print Firms Hong Kong 31°C Bracket to 74.5%

HKO 32°C Reading at 1 p.m. Fires Hong Kong YES to 85.5%

EGLC Reads 34°C at Peak Hour, London 35°C YES Locks at 94.5%

Seoul 27°C YES Surges to 60.5% as Incheon Hits 79°F

Amber Warning Fires London 35°C YES 49pp to 68.5%

Incheon Reads 83°F; Seoul 30°C Contract Surges to 94.5%

Met Office 34°C Call Fires Shenzhen 33°C Contract to 96.5%

Rain-Capped Pudong Locks Shanghai 24°C Bracket to 94.5%

Seoul 27°C Bracket Surges to 80.5% as Afternoon Heat Builds

Shanghai 24°C Bracket Hits 66% as Rain Caps Forecast

LaGuardia 82°F Forecast Fires NYC 82–83°F Bracket to 73%

Marine-Layer Persistence Fires LA 70–71°F Bracket to 79%

Spain Heatwave Fires Madrid 39°C Bracket to 93.35%

Amber Heat Warning Drives London 28°C YES to 94.5%

HKO Hot-Weekend Forecast Fires Hong Kong 33°C Market to 55.5%

June Gloom Fires LA 70–71°F Bracket to 75%

EGLC Peak at 16°C Sends London Temperature Contract to 89.5%

HKO 29–34°C Forecast Anchors June 4 Heat Contract at 77%

Seoul 27°C Contract at 80.5% as 86°F Forecast Drives 63.5pp Surge

HKO Midweek Heat Forecast Lifts Hong Kong 34°C Contract to 56%

HKO Confirms 28.7°C Minimum, Hong Kong June 3 Bracket at 90.6%

Milan 23°C Contract at 93.6% as Malpensa Forecast Targets Day-High Threshold

Shenzhen Airport Station Hits 86°F as 29°C Contract Races to 89%

Shenzhen 29°C Contract Surges to 78% as Airport Station Reads 85°F

Paris 25°C Contract Surges 83 Points to 92¢ on Heat Forecast

June 2026 Record-Heat Contract Holds at 38.5% After Crash to 13%

Seoul Precipitation Bracket Jumps to 44.75% on Late-May KMA Rain Event