Monthly PCE Cooling Locks Fed July Hold at 80.5%
The Fed no-change market hit 80.5% as of 04:45 UTC Friday — a 5pp gain in 24 hours — as May's softer monthly inflation print sidelines July hike bets.
The Polymarket contract on whether the FOMC holds rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting hit 80.5% at 04:45 UTC Friday — up exactly 5 percentage points from its 24-hour open at 0.755. The session ran from a floor of 0.755 to a ceiling of 0.805, with the final push arriving in the overnight window as persistent buy-side flow absorbed every pocket of selling.
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