Nine FOMC Dots Back 2026 Hike; Fed Rate-Hike YES Surges to 57%
The Fed rate-hike YES contract reached 57% as of 19:53 UTC Wednesday, up 28.5pp from the session's 0.285 floor, after Warsh's debut dot plot showed 9 of 18 officials backing at least one 2026 hike.
The Market · LiveTrade ↗YES probability · 24h change
- 24h vol
- $5k
- Liquidity
- $118k
- Contract
The Fed rate-hike 2026 YES contract, at 35.5% heading into Warsh's debut, surged to 57% as of 19:53 UTC Wednesday — a 28.5-point recovery from the session's 0.285 floor — after the FOMC held rates steady but published a hawkish dot plot showing 9 of 18 officials backing at least one 2026 hike.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Finance July Fed Hike Odds Jump 7.4pp to 27% After Warsh Debut
The July 2026 Fed 25bps-hike contract priced at 26.95% at 07:17 UTC Friday, up 7.4pp after Kevin Warsh's hawkish first FOMC meeting removed the easing bias.
Filed June 19, 2026
Economics Nine Hawk Dots Drive July Hike Odds to 26% on Warsh's FOMC Debut
The Polymarket July Fed rate-hike contract is at 26.05% as of 10:38 UTC Friday — up 10.3 percentage points in 24 hours after nine FOMC members signaled a 2026 rate increase in Chair Warsh's debut dot plot.
Filed June 19, 2026
Economics Fed July Hold Slides 8pp as Hawkish Dot Plot Bites
The Polymarket contract pricing a July Fed hold sits at 71.5% as of 05:33 UTC Friday, down 8pp in 24 hours after nine FOMC officials signaled continued rate hikes.
Filed June 19, 2026
Finance Monthly PCE Cooling Locks Fed July Hold at 80.5%
The Fed no-change market hit 80.5% as of 04:45 UTC Friday — a 5pp gain in 24 hours — as May's softer monthly inflation print sidelines July hike bets.
Filed June 26, 2026
Finance Warsh's Blank Dot Holds July Hike Odds at 24.55% After Morning Run
The Polymarket July Fed rate-hike market holds at 24.55% as of 15:13 UTC Monday, up 4pp, with Chair Warsh's blank dot capping conviction.
Filed June 22, 2026
Finance May Payrolls Blowout Drives Zero-Cuts Conviction to 83%
May's 172,000-job blowout — more than double the consensus — has driven the zero-cuts-in-2026 contract up 13.8 points to 83% on Saturday, erasing the last credible case for Fed easing.
87¢implied▲+1.1 ptsFiled June 6, 2026