Mine-Clearance and Insurance Wall Pin Hormuz Recovery at 22.5%
The Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract trades at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday as 40-50 day mine-clearance timelines block any June 30 resolution.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 was priced at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday, down from 29.5% covered earlier today. Sunday's session high of 35.5% has been fully erased: the first sampled point at or below 30.5% (the 5pp descent threshold from the peak) arrived at 21:57 UTC Sunday; the price recovered to 32.5% at 22:22 UTC, then fell to 25.5% at 22:46 UTC before settling at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday. The 24-hour range spans 13% to 35.5%.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Economics Nine Days Left, Six Months of Mines: Hormuz June Recovery Holds at 7.5%
At 7.5% as of 2026-06-21T05:22 UTC, the Hormuz June 30 normalization contract prices near-certain failure — a six-month mine-clearance clock is overriding a signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding with nine days to the deadline.
Filed June 21, 2026
Economics Hormuz YES Hits 10.5% Session High; Mine-Clearance Math Unchanged
The Strait of Hormuz June traffic recovery contract reached 10.5% at 12:35 UTC Saturday—its 24-hour session high—but six-month mine timelines still make normalization a 1-in-9.5 shot.
Filed June 20, 2026
Economics Hormuz June YES Crashes to 9.5% as Mine-Clearance Wall Holds
The Strait of Hormuz June-30 recovery contract has fallen to 9.5% as of 07:25 UTC on June 19, down 9pp in the 24-hour window, as mine-clearance timelines overwhelm the US-Iran peace deal's momentum.
Filed June 19, 2026
Economics Mine Clock and Insurance Spike Keep Hormuz June Contract at 18.5%
The Strait of Hormuz June-recovery contract holds at 18.5% on Wednesday, net 2pp above Tuesday's opening low, as a 40-to-50-day mine-clearance timeline and 10-to-40x war-risk insurance surge outpace the 13 days left to resolution.
Filed June 17, 2026
Economics Mine-Clearance Timeline Holds Hormuz June Recovery at 17.5%
Hormuz's June recovery contract trades at 17.5% as of 03:57 UTC Wednesday, pinned by mine-clearance and insurance barriers that outlast the Iran deal bounce.
Filed June 17, 2026
Economics Hormuz Recovery Holds at 9.5% as Two Bounces Fade and 412 Vessels Remain Trapped
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract held at 9.5% as of 19:42 UTC on June 9, with intraday bounces to 11.5% and 10.5% both faded as war-risk insurance at 4,000× pre-crisis levels keeps physical recovery out of reach.
Filed June 9, 2026