Mine-Clearance and Insurance Wall Pin Hormuz Recovery at 22.5%
The Strait of Hormuz traffic-recovery contract trades at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday as 40-50 day mine-clearance timelines block any June 30 resolution.
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The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 was priced at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday, down from 29.5% covered earlier today. Sunday's session high of 35.5% has been fully erased: the first sampled point at or below 30.5% (the 5pp descent threshold from the peak) arrived at 21:57 UTC Sunday; the price recovered to 32.5% at 22:22 UTC, then fell to 25.5% at 22:46 UTC before settling at 22.5% at 17:27 UTC Monday. The 24-hour range spans 13% to 35.5%.
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