Two-Month Mine Clock Holds Hormuz June YES at Session-High 6.5%
The Hormuz June-recovery contract sits at 6.5% as of 21:27 UTC Monday — 1pp above Sunday's close — as a two-month mine-clearance timeline erases any prospect of the 60-vessel transit threshold by June 30.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
The Hormuz June-recovery contract — priced at 5.5% in Orakll's earlier Monday coverage — has ticked up to 6.5% as of 21:27 UTC on Monday, its session high and 1pp above Sunday's close. The contract touched a session low of 4.5% at 07:14 UTC before recovering; it has traded at 6.5% continuously since 12:55 UTC. With eight days to the June 30 resolution deadline, the 93.5% NO side reflects a structural verdict: the physical gap between "ceasefire signed" and "60 vessels transiting daily" cannot close by month-end.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
Read next
Economics Nine Days Left, Six Months of Mines: Hormuz June Recovery Holds at 7.5%
At 7.5% as of 2026-06-21T05:22 UTC, the Hormuz June 30 normalization contract prices near-certain failure — a six-month mine-clearance clock is overriding a signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding with nine days to the deadline.
Filed June 21, 2026
Economics Hormuz YES Hits 10.5% Session High; Mine-Clearance Math Unchanged
The Strait of Hormuz June traffic recovery contract reached 10.5% at 12:35 UTC Saturday—its 24-hour session high—but six-month mine timelines still make normalization a 1-in-9.5 shot.
Filed June 20, 2026
Economics Hormuz June YES Crashes to 9.5% as Mine-Clearance Wall Holds
The Strait of Hormuz June-30 recovery contract has fallen to 9.5% as of 07:25 UTC on June 19, down 9pp in the 24-hour window, as mine-clearance timelines overwhelm the US-Iran peace deal's momentum.