Nine Days Left, Six Months of Mines: Hormuz June Recovery Holds at 7.5%

Nine days from the June 30 resolution deadline, the Polymarket contract asking whether Strait of Hormuz transit calls will reach a 7-day moving average of 60 ships sits at 7.5% as of 2026-06-21T05:22 UTC — up from the 6.5% Orakll logged about five hours ago, still pricing near-certain failure despite a signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding. The contract's resolution bar is precise: IMF Portwatch must publish a 7-day moving average of "Arrivals of Ships" at the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date on or before June 30, 2026. Transit calls collapsed to roughly six vessels per day when Iran mined the waterway following US-Israeli strikes; reaching 60 requires a 10x surge sustained across a full rolling week — a ramp that mine-clearance experts say takes months, not days. The divergence between deal confidence and operational timelines has anchored the contract's thesis since Orakll first covered it at 9.5% on June 20: diplomacy moves in days; naval mine clearance moves in months.

¶Why now