4,000x Insurance Wall Anchors Hormuz Recovery at 22.5%
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 holds at 22.5% as of 04:56 UTC Sunday, anchored by war-risk insurance running 4,000 times pre-conflict levels and a six-month mine-clearance estimate.
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The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June 30 holds at 22.5% as of 04:56 UTC Sunday—2pp above its 20.5% print at 02:06 UTC but unable to hold onto the session's 26.5% high. The 24-hour session low was 16.5%. The market resolves YES only when IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls reaches 60, a threshold that sits well beyond the reach of the current partial-reopening regime.
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