4,000x Insurance Wall Anchors Hormuz Recovery at 22.5%
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 holds at 22.5% as of 04:56 UTC Sunday, anchored by war-risk insurance running 4,000 times pre-conflict levels and a six-month mine-clearance estimate.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June 30 holds at 22.5% as of 04:56 UTC Sunday—2pp above its 20.5% print at 02:06 UTC but unable to hold onto the session's 26.5% high. The 24-hour session low was 16.5%. The market resolves YES only when IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls reaches 60, a threshold that sits well beyond the reach of the current partial-reopening regime.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Economics Mine-Clearance Clock and Insurance Wall Anchor Hormuz Recovery at 29.5%
The Hormuz-recovery contract holds at 29.5% as of 05:58 UTC Monday — up 7pp in 24 hours, still far below even-money.
Filed June 15, 2026
Economics 4,000x Insurance Wall Keeps Hormuz Recovery Anchored at 7.5%
The Hormuz recovery contract sits at 7.5% as of 10:54 UTC Thursday, pinned by 4,000-fold war-risk premiums with 19 days left to the June 30 deadline.
Filed June 11, 2026
Culture Hormuz June Recovery at 14.5% as Mine-Clearance Outlasts Ceasefire
Hormuz June recovery sits at 14.5% as of 01:20 UTC Sunday — down 2pp — as mine-clearance timelines and insurance costs outlast the ceasefire.