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30 results for “ceasefire”
The Hormuz recovery market holds at 47.5% YES at 02:40 UTC Saturday as 80 IMO-estimated mines block the transit threshold despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
Filed June 27, 2026
Hormuz July YES has climbed to 56.5% as of 16:41 UTC Thursday, adding 11pp as ceasefire optimism outruns the mine-clearance clock.
Filed June 25, 2026
The Hormuz recovery contract holds at 29.5% Monday, blocked below 30% by mine-clearance timelines and insurance-premium spikes despite the ceasefire.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract holds at 29.5% as of 05:58 UTC Monday — up 7pp in 24 hours, still far below even-money.
Filed June 15, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract surged late Sunday before retreating to 25.5% at 22:42 UTC, as insurance costs and mine-clearance timelines continue to cap the YES case.
Filed June 15, 2026
Iran's airspace-closure contract has crashed from its 80.4% session peak to 4.45% as of 21:40 UTC Sunday, with six hours to deadline.
Filed June 15, 2026
The June 14 Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped 15.5pp to 26% as of 16:24 UTC Sunday, reversing a slide toward the session floor with roughly 11.5 hours left to the midnight ET deadline.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June 14 ceasefire-extension market stands at 32% at 09:55 UTC Sunday, down from a 43% morning high as Iran's FM rejects a same-day deal.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-14 Iran ceasefire extension contract sits at 31.5% at 05:36 UTC Sunday — up 9.5pp on the day — as Trump's Truth Social signing pledge runs into Iran FM Baghaei's denial.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-13 ceasefire extension contract sits at 17.6% YES at 05:08 UTC Sunday, 69 minutes past its resolution deadline, as late buyers bet Trump's June 11 announcement qualifies under the market's own resolution criteria.
Filed June 14, 2026
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 holds at 22.5% as of 04:56 UTC Sunday, anchored by war-risk insurance running 4,000 times pre-conflict levels and a six-month mine-clearance estimate.
Filed June 14, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract trades at 23.5% as of 00:53 UTC Sunday, with mine-clearance timelines and surging war-risk premiums capping the ceasefire's lift.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-13 Iran ceasefire extension market hit 24% at 16:52 UTC Saturday — up 15.5pp from 8.5% in under 25 minutes — as Pakistan's PM says a deal could be signed within 24 hours.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz-recovery contract is at 21.5% as of 15:01 UTC Saturday, up 5pp on the day, as insurance and mine-clearance walls hold firm on ceasefire day 7.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz traffic-recovery contract sat at 19.5% as of 14:00 UTC Saturday, pulling back from a 23% session high as mine-clearance timelines and war-risk insurance premiums cap any ceasefire-driven upside with 17 days until June 30.
Filed June 13, 2026
Polymarket's Israel-Iran June 30 peace-deal contract hit 12.45% Saturday, up 7.2pp from its 24-hour open, as the 60-day truce extension framework sustains fresh buying.
Filed June 13, 2026
The Hormuz June-30 contract is at 19% as of 17:15 UTC Friday — up 11.5pp from open, capped by mine-clearance delays and war-risk premiums.
Filed June 12, 2026
Hormuz recovery odds stand at 22.5% at 15:27 UTC Friday, 7pp above a 15.5% mid-session mark and 16pp above the 6.5% session open.
Filed June 12, 2026
The June-15 Iran permanent-peace-deal contract has slipped to 15.25% as of 12:51 UTC Friday, as heavy YES selling checks the morning bid with roughly three days to deadline.
Filed June 12, 2026
Polymarket's June-15 US-Iran permanent peace deal contract trades at 16.35% as of 12:15 UTC Friday, up 11.75pp from its 4.6% session open on Trump's 60-day ceasefire extension.
Filed June 12, 2026
The Hormuz end-of-June recovery contract reached 24% Friday after Trump's ceasefire extension spurred YES buying; mine-clearance timelines and $1M-per-ship tolls cap the upside.
Filed June 12, 2026
The June 30 US-Iran peace-deal contract trades at 28.5% Friday, having surged 29pp from Thursday's 15.5% open before the uranium enrichment sticking point dragged it back.
Filed June 12, 2026
The Israel airspace-closure contract stands at 4.5% as of 07:03 UTC Friday, down 12pp from its 16.5% Thursday open, after Trump announced a 60-day ceasefire extension.
Filed June 12, 2026
The July 31 Hormuz recovery contract holds at 44.5% as of 03:12 UTC Friday, 25pp above its June 30 sibling at 19.5%.
Filed June 12, 2026
The US-Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 24.15% as of 01:40 UTC Friday, up nearly 20 points from its overnight open, after Trump declared a deal was effectively agreed and awaiting signature.
Filed June 12, 2026
Hormuz recovery odds tripled to 20.5% Thursday as US airstrikes on Iran opened a forced-normalization path that diplomacy alone couldn't price in.
Filed June 12, 2026
The Hormuz traffic-recovery contract fell to 6.5% on Thursday, down 2pp this session, as 4,000× pre-crisis war-risk premiums and a six-month mine-clearance backlog continue to outlast the ceasefire.
Filed June 11, 2026
The Hormuz recovery contract sits at 7.5% as of 10:54 UTC Thursday, pinned by 4,000-fold war-risk premiums with 19 days left to the June 30 deadline.
Filed June 11, 2026
Project Freedom restart odds surged 81.85 points to 94.35% on Polymarket by Wednesday evening as US-Iran military exchanges shattered the ceasefire's diplomatic track.
Filed June 10, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract sits at 8.5% as of Wednesday evening — down 1pp on the session — as 4,000× war-risk premiums and a mine backlog outlast nearly a week of ceasefire.
Filed June 10, 2026