Insurance Wall and Mine Backlog Hold Hormuz Recovery at 8.5%
The Strait of Hormuz recovery contract sits at 8.5% as of Wednesday evening — down 1pp on the session — as 4,000× war-risk premiums and a mine backlog outlast nearly a week of ceasefire.
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As of 19:24 UTC Wednesday, Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 at 8.5% — down 1 percentage point from a 9.5% session open — as prior coverage has tracked multiple failed YES rallies this week. The ceasefire has held for nearly a week. The price hasn't moved because the ceasefire isn't the binding constraint.
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