Insurance Wall and 412 Trapped Ships Pin Hormuz Recovery at 6.5%
The Hormuz traffic-recovery contract fell to 6.5% on Thursday, down 2pp this session, as 4,000× pre-crisis war-risk premiums and a six-month mine-clearance backlog continue to outlast the ceasefire.
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The Polymarket contract pricing whether Strait of Hormuz traffic recovers to normal by June 30 fell to 6.5% as of 15:23 UTC Thursday, extending the slide documented earlier Thursday from 7.5% — down 2pp from the session open of 8.5% — as the compound logistical bottleneck continues to run ahead of any diplomatic progress.
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