War-Risk at 4,000× Pre-Crisis Pins Hormuz Recovery at 9.5%
The Hormuz-recovery contract sits at 9.5% on Wednesday as 412 stranded vessels and 4,000-times-normal war-risk insurance outlast three days of ceasefire.
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The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz shipping returning to normal by June 30 sits at 9.5% as of 13:05 UTC on Wednesday — holding despite three days of ceasefire — as structural bottlenecks keep commercial transits near zero. The YES token peaked at 0.115 earlier on Tuesday before retreating to 0.085 early Wednesday morning and rebounding to 0.095 at the last sampled point.
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