Mine Backlog and 4,000× Premiums Pin Hormuz Recovery at 9.5%
The Strait of Hormuz normalization contract held at 9.5% late Tuesday — 20 days from the June 30 deadline — as 4,000-fold insurance premiums and uncleared mines outlast the ceasefire.
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The Strait of Hormuz normalization contract held at 9.5% as of 23:39 UTC Tuesday, unchanged from its 24-hour opening, as the market's intraday bounce — a climb to the session high of 11.5% at 13:55 UTC — faded fully to 9.5% by 16:45 UTC. With 20 days before the June 30 deadline, traders are pricing roughly 1-in-11 odds that IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches the 60-vessel threshold required for YES resolution.
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