Trump's 'Great Settlement' Signal Lifts June-12 Iran Contract to 24%
The US-Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 24.15% as of 01:40 UTC Friday, up nearly 20 points from its overnight open, after Trump declared a deal was effectively agreed and awaiting signature.
The contract pricing a US announcement of an Iran ceasefire extension by tonight's 11:59 PM ET deadline climbed to 24.15% as of 01:40 UTC Friday — up nearly 20 points from its 4.4% open at 01:41 UTC Thursday — on President Trump's June 11 Oval Office claim that "we just made a great settlement of the war with Iran" and that a signing, "maybe in Europe," was days away.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Politics June 14 Extension Fades to 32% as Iran FM Blocks Sunday Signing
The June 14 ceasefire-extension market stands at 32% at 09:55 UTC Sunday, down from a 43% morning high as Iran's FM rejects a same-day deal.
Filed June 14, 2026
Politics Trump Enrichment Acceptance at 17.4% as Deal Frames Iran Freeze, Not Permission
The 'Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment?' contract sits at 17.35% as of 07:45 UTC Wednesday, down 9.15pp on the session, as the US-Iran deal crystallises around a 15-year suspension rather than US consent to continued enrichment.
Filed June 17, 2026
Politics Iran Accord Declared Complete; June-15 YES Holds at 94.95%
Trump's 'deal complete' declaration pushed the June-15 YES contract to 94.95% as of 23:20 UTC Monday — still 5pp from par with fewer than five hours to Polymarket's 11:59 PM ET deadline.