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28 results for “Trump”
The June 7 permanent peace-deal contract eased to 5.5% Tuesday as Trump withholds MOU approval and the deadline sits five days out.
Filed 2h ago
The June 7 Iran deal contract sits at 6% Tuesday as Trump's third MOU revision awaits Iranian sign-off with five days until the Sunday deadline.
Filed 4h ago
At 5.5% as of 03:09 UTC Tuesday, the June 7 permanent-peace contract prices 1-in-18 odds as Trump's latest edits circle back to Tehran unsigned.
Filed 10h ago
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 contract sits at 5.5% as of 01:21 UTC Tuesday, down 3pp on the 24-hour session, as Trump's sign-off on the May 28 MOU remains pending.
Filed 12h ago
The US-Iran June 7 permanent peace-deal contract sits at 7.5% early Monday, down 5pp in 24 hours on $1.26M volume, as Trump withholds MOU sign-off.
Filed 1d ago
Trump's UAP contract was priced at 59% at 17:39 UTC Sunday—up 19.5 points in 24 hours—on the Pentagon's two confirmed PURSUE releases ahead of the June 15 deadline.
Filed 2d ago
The June 7 permanent-peace contract sits at 11.5% as of 12:11 UTC Sunday, down 2 points over 24 hours on $716k in volume.
Filed 2d ago
The Hormuz blockade-lift market prices at 12.5% as of 17:13 UTC Saturday, down 61pp in 24 hours on $1.24M, with roughly 35 hours left before the May 31 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Filed 3d ago
As of 12:43 UTC May 30, the May-31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract hit 12.5¢—its 24-hour floor, down 14pp—as Trump stalls on approving the tentative 60-day MOU with the deadline 39 hours out.
Filed 3d ago
The May-31 ceasefire-extension contract hit a session-low 14.5¢ at 06:47 UTC Saturday, down 12pp, as Trump withholds MOU sign-off.
Filed 3d ago
The blockade-lift contract collapsed to 18% as of 04:43 UTC Friday as Iran rejected Trump's conditions and NAVCENT kept the blockade active.
Filed 3d ago
The May-31 US-Iran permanent-peace contract slid to a 6.5% session floor before recovering to 8.5% as of 19:29 UTC Friday, with the 60-day MOU awaiting Trump's approval explicitly failing the permanent-deal resolution bar even if signed.
Filed 4d ago
The Hormuz blockade-lift contract sits at 52% as of 18:27 UTC Friday — up 24.5 points on the day but retracing sharply from an 86-cent intraday peak.
Filed 4d ago
Hormuz blockade-lift contract sits at 69.5¢ at 15:39 UTC Friday, up 45.5pp on the day, after Trump posted to Truth Social the U.S. blockade 'will now be lifted.'
Filed 4d ago
The US-Iran treaty contract hit a 24-hour low of 6.5% at 14:42 UTC Friday and bounced to 13.5%, still 11 points below the ceasefire-extension sibling at 24.5%.
Filed 4d ago
Ceasefire-extension contract at 25% on May 29, up 11.5pp in 24 hours, as negotiators' tentative 60-day MOU awaits Trump's final approval.
Filed 4d ago
May 31 US-Iran peace-deal market hits 9.5% Friday as Trump withholds MOU sign-off and $5.6M cycles through the 24-hour window.
Filed 4d ago
At 31.5% as of 01:07 UTC May 29 — up +7pp in 24 hours on $873,594 of volume — the ceasefire-extension-by-May-31 contract holds post-MOU residual as Trump's approval awaits.
Filed 5d ago
At 41.5% as of 17:14 UTC, the May 31 ceasefire-extension contract rebounds 29pp off its floor after US-Iran negotiators confirmed a 60-day MOU pending Trump's approval.
Filed 5d ago
The May 31 ceasefire-extension contract fell to 16.5% on May 28, shedding 25 points after Trump ruled out sanctions relief for Iran.
Filed 5d ago
Polymarket put the Project Freedom restart at 7.8% mid-afternoon UTC Tuesday, down from a 78.65% intraday high inside 24 hours on $443k of flow.
Filed 6d ago
Polymarket's May 31 Iran ceasefire-extension contract trades at 39.5% as of 08:27 UTC Tuesday, down 12.5pp from yesterday's 52% framework-post close.
Filed May 26, 2026
The contract on a US-announced Iran ceasefire extension by tonight's 11:59 PM ET deadline trades at 8.5% as of 05:17 UTC May 26, down 7 points on $635k of 24h volume.
Filed May 26, 2026
Polymarket's May 31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped +14.5pp in 24 hours to 52% by 20:58 UTC May 25 on $509k of volume.
Filed May 26, 2026
Polymarket prices Trump's odds of declaring the Hormuz blockade lifted by May 31 at 27.5% as of May 25, down 37.5 points overnight.
Filed May 25, 2026
Polymarket's deadline market trades at 9.5% as of 21:21 UTC Sunday, down 47.5 points in 24 hours on $7.36M after Trump tells negotiators not to rush.
Filed May 25, 2026
A 48-hour Polymarket contract on a permanent US–Iran peace deal sits at 41.5% as of 13:41 UTC May 24, after running from 11.5% to a 68% high inside a day.
Filed May 24, 2026
The May 31 peace-deal market closed Saturday at 63.5% as of 21:37 UTC May 23, up from 17.5% twenty-four hours earlier on $5.98M of volume — the day Trump said a framework was 'largely negotiated.'
Filed May 24, 2026