Uranium Enrichment Gap Holds June 30 Iran Deal at 28.5%

The US-Iran permanent peace-deal contract for June 30 trades at 28.5% as of 08:27 UTC Friday — day four of the latest ceasefire extension, down from 44.5% reached at 19:51 UTC Thursday, the highest explicitly sampled level in the 24-hour window. Orakll tracked the contract surging to 31% when the June 15 deadline window narrowed; the retreat since then reflects the same structural deadlock the market has priced in repeatedly: a ceasefire is not a permanent deal, and the resolution criteria demand a signed agreement or unambiguous public confirmation from both governments before June 30 at 11:59 PM ET.

The gap between a temporary military halt and a qualifying permanent settlement turns almost entirely on one file: uranium enrichment. Three prior ceasefire cycles have each produced a near-miss before collapsing, and each collapse has originated in the same place.