Military Escalation Triples Hormuz Recovery Odds to 20.5%
Hormuz recovery odds tripled to 20.5% Thursday as US airstrikes on Iran opened a forced-normalization path that diplomacy alone couldn't price in.
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The Hormuz traffic-recovery contract reached 20.5% at 22:34 UTC Thursday — up 14pp from a 6.5% session floor — as US military escalation against Iran opened a forced-normalization scenario prior coverage had priced out.
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