Hormuz June Recovery at 15.5% as Transit Count Stays at 11% of Normal
The June 30 Hormuz normalization contract sat at 15.5% Thursday, down 5pp in 24 hours, as daily transits held at 11% of pre-crisis baseline.
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The June 30 Hormuz normalization contract held at 15.5% as of 07:22 UTC Thursday, down 5pp from a 0.205 session opening on June 3. The resolution bar is exact: the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls must reach 60 ships before June 30 to resolve YES. Real-time tracker data shows daily transits running at roughly 10 ships as of May 31 — just 11% of the 95-ship pre-crisis baseline — leaving the market pricing a sixfold surge in under four weeks.
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