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30 results for “geopolitics”
Polymarket prices Putin out of the Russian presidency before year-end at 12.5% as of early Saturday — up 3 percentage points from the 24-hour low — after an overnight block buy tests a structural ceiling.
Filed June 27, 2026
Hormuz July YES is at 48.5% as of 08:46 UTC Thursday; post-war traffic hit a weekend high but confirmed mines block the central channel from full recovery.
Filed June 25, 2026
The US-Iran final nuclear deal market sits at 22.5% as of 12:30 UTC Wednesday, down 6 percentage points in 24 hours on widening enrichment impasses.
Filed June 24, 2026
Hormuz July YES priced at 46.5% at 04:01 UTC Wednesday, down 2pp from Tuesday's open, as daily transits at 14–20% of pre-conflict levels leave the ≥60-call resolution bar more than double current run-rates.
Filed June 24, 2026
Hormuz July-31 YES climbs to 48.5% at 23:36 UTC Monday, up 9pp from 39.5%, as US-Iran Switzerland talks yield a maritime safe-passage mechanism.
Filed June 23, 2026
The 'Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?' contract reached 73.95% at 19:42 UTC Wednesday — up 63.9pp in 24 hours — after Israeli strikes forced Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation to issue an immediate, indefinite suspension of all flight operations at Imam Khomeini International Airport.
Filed June 17, 2026
The Hormuz June recovery contract fell to a fresh session low of 19.5% at 05:09 UTC Tuesday as six-month mine-clearance estimates block the YES case despite the US-Iran accord.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Israel-Iran June 30 peace market sits at 11.85% as of 05:00 UTC Tuesday, 86.8 percentage points below the US-Iran accord at 98.65%, as Trump's deal explicitly excludes bilateral normalization with Tel Aviv.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Iran-US June-15 peace-deal contract sits at 94.1% as of 22:18 UTC Monday, up 16.2 percentage points in 24 hours, after Iran's SNSC confirmed the MOU and a Geneva signing is set for June 19.
Filed June 16, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz July 31 recovery contract priced YES at 64% as of 18:17 UTC Monday, up 13.5 points on the session after Trump's Iran peace deal stalled against physical mine-clearance timelines.
Filed June 15, 2026
The June 15 US–Iran permanent peace deal contract is at 16.1% as of 16:10 UTC Sunday — down 13.7 percentage points in 24 hours — as Iran's FM publicly rejected Trump's Sunday signing pledge and the deadline approached unsigned.
Filed June 14, 2026
The June-15 US-Iran peace-deal contract is at 27.25% at 19:01 UTC Saturday, retreating from a 36.55% sampled session high after Tehran's foreign ministry ruled out a Sunday signing.
Filed June 13, 2026
The June-30 US–Iran peace deal hit 55.5% Saturday after Trump's Sunday-signing promise drove a 67.5% session peak before Iran's FM denied the timeline.
Filed June 13, 2026
The June 15 US-Iran peace deal is at 16.5% at 22:03 UTC Friday, off the 21.6% session high as Iran hedges on Pakistan's 'final text' claim.
Filed June 13, 2026
The June-15 US-Iran peace deal climbed to 19.7% at 18:57 UTC Friday, up 8.05pp from its 11.65% session open, as Pakistan's PM declared a 'final agreed upon text' was reached.
Filed June 12, 2026
The June-15 Iran peace-deal contract holds at 13.65% at 09:01 UTC Friday, up 9.35pp from Thursday's 4.3% open, after Trump declared a deal 'largely negotiated' while Tehran disputes finalization.
Filed June 12, 2026
The June-15 Iran permanent peace deal climbed to 13.95% early Friday after Trump canceled planned strikes and declared talks had reached Iran's highest leadership.
Filed June 12, 2026
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 15 reached 17.5% at 19:16 UTC Thursday — up 13.3pp from its 4.2% open — as YES buyers overcame a rival YES liquidation to lift the contract.
Filed June 11, 2026
The June 30 US-Iran peace deal contract hit 36.5% Thursday — up 20pp on the day — as Trump's 'two or three days' window expires, lifting the June 15 companion to 18.85%.
Filed June 11, 2026
Israel's June 15 airspace-closure contract trades at 13.5% as of 06:07 UTC Wednesday, well off a June 9 session peak of 23.5%.
Filed June 10, 2026
Israel's airspace-closure contract hit 52% at 01:33 UTC Monday, up from 18.5¢ at 00:45 UTC, as Iran threatens further strikes if Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue.
Filed June 8, 2026
The China-Taiwan invasion market sits at 6.6% as of 17:16 UTC on June 6, up 0.45pp on a late-May Pratas Island coast guard standoff and steady PLA aerial pressure.
Filed June 6, 2026
The June 30 Hormuz normalization contract sat at 15.5% Thursday, down 5pp in 24 hours, as daily transits held at 11% of pre-crisis baseline.
Filed June 4, 2026
Hormuz July-31 recovery sits at 34.5% as of 05:27 UTC Thursday, down 4 points from the 38.5% session open on mine-clearance and insurance headwinds.
Filed June 4, 2026
The Hormuz June recovery contract holds at 20.5% as of Wednesday morning, pricing 1-in-5 odds on shipping normalization beating the June 30 deadline.
Filed June 3, 2026
At 22:49 UTC Tuesday, Iran's June 15 permanent-peace contract held at 13.5% — 8pp above the June 7 sibling at 5.5% — as the MOU remains unsigned and Iran's talks suspension trims both windows.
Filed June 3, 2026
The June 7 Iran deal contract sits at 6% Tuesday as Trump's third MOU revision awaits Iranian sign-off with five days until the Sunday deadline.
Filed June 2, 2026
The July-31 Hormuz-recovery contract sat at 49% at 15:18 UTC Sunday — down 4.5pp — as ceasefire momentum fails to bridge the shipping-logistics gap.
Filed May 31, 2026
The July-31 Hormuz traffic-normalization contract sits at 48.5% as of 13:05 UTC Sunday, down 7 points from its 0.555 session open as the May MOU deadline expires unsigned.
Filed May 31, 2026
Hormuz blockade-lift contract sits at 69.5¢ at 15:39 UTC Friday, up 45.5pp on the day, after Trump posted to Truth Social the U.S. blockade 'will now be lifted.'
Filed May 29, 2026