Hormuz July YES Holds at 46.5% as Transit Gap Widens to Resolution Threshold
Hormuz July YES priced at 46.5% at 04:01 UTC Wednesday, down 2pp from Tuesday's open, as daily transits at 14–20% of pre-conflict levels leave the ≥60-call resolution bar more than double current run-rates.
The Strait of Hormuz July-recovery market priced YES at 46.5% as of 04:01 UTC Wednesday — falling 2pp from Tuesday's 48.5% session open — as the physical gap between signed diplomacy and operational mine clearance reasserted itself in the tape.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Politics Mine-Clearance Wall Keeps Hormuz July 31 Contract at 63.5%
The Hormuz July 31 recovery contract priced at 63.5% as of 23:35 UTC Monday, with mine-clearance and insurance barriers holding back the physical traffic recovery.
5¢implied▼−3.0 ptsFiled June 16, 2026
Economics Hormuz July-31 Recovery Holds at 47.5% Despite Ceasefire
Hormuz's July-31 recovery contract sits at 47.5% YES as of 22:51 UTC Sunday, with logistics bottlenecks persisting seven weeks into the ceasefire.