Hormuz July-31 Recovery Holds at 47.5% Despite Ceasefire
Hormuz's July-31 recovery contract sits at 47.5% YES as of 22:51 UTC Sunday, with logistics bottlenecks persisting seven weeks into the ceasefire.
The Market · LiveTrade ↗YES probability · 24h change
- 24h vol
- $291k
- Liquidity
- $554k
- Contract
The Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 sits at 47.5% YES as of 22:51 UTC Sunday, down a full point from 0.485 at the prior session's close. Seven weeks into the Iran-US ceasefire, the contract has traded between a history low of 0.465 and a high of 0.505 since it opened on May 11 — and Sunday's tape has yet to produce the conviction needed to break out of the coin-flip range.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Economics Hormuz July YES Holds at 46.5% as Transit Gap Widens to Resolution Threshold
Hormuz July YES priced at 46.5% at 04:01 UTC Wednesday, down 2pp from Tuesday's open, as daily transits at 14–20% of pre-conflict levels leave the ≥60-call resolution bar more than double current run-rates.
1¢implied▲+0.3 ptsFiled June 24, 2026
Economics July-31 Hormuz Recovery Holds at 47.5¢ Despite Ceasefire MOU
The July-31 Hormuz recovery contract prints 47.5% as of 05:56 UTC Sunday — down 9 points in 24 hours despite a tentative ceasefire MOU.
1¢implied▲+0.3 ptsFiled May 31, 2026
Politics Mine-Clearance Wall Keeps Hormuz July 31 Contract at 63.5%
The Hormuz July 31 recovery contract priced at 63.5% as of 23:35 UTC Monday, with mine-clearance and insurance barriers holding back the physical traffic recovery.
1¢implied▲+0.3 ptsFiled June 16, 2026
Economics Hormuz Recovery Contract Holds at 49% as Logistics Gap Anchors Half-Mast Pricing
The July-31 Hormuz-recovery contract sat at 49% at 15:18 UTC Sunday — down 4.5pp — as ceasefire momentum fails to bridge the shipping-logistics gap.
1¢implied▲+0.3 ptsFiled May 31, 2026
Economics July Hormuz Recovery Contract Falls to 47% as Ceasefire Expires Unsigned
July-31 Hormuz recovery at 47% YES on Sunday — down 10.5pp as the May ceasefire expires unsigned and mine-clearing timelines bite.
1¢implied▲+0.3 ptsFiled May 31, 2026
Economics Post-War Traffic Peak Keeps Hormuz July YES Pinned at 48.5%
Hormuz July YES is at 48.5% as of 08:46 UTC Thursday; post-war traffic hit a weekend high but confirmed mines block the central channel from full recovery.
1¢implied▲+0.3 ptsFiled June 25, 2026