Hormuz July-31 Recovery Holds at 47.5% Despite Ceasefire
Hormuz's July-31 recovery contract sits at 47.5% YES as of 22:51 UTC Sunday, with logistics bottlenecks persisting seven weeks into the ceasefire.
The Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 sits at 47.5% YES as of 22:51 UTC Sunday, down a full point from 0.485 at the prior session's close. Seven weeks into the Iran-US ceasefire, the contract has traded between a history low of 0.465 and a high of 0.505 since it opened on May 11 — and Sunday's tape has yet to produce the conviction needed to break out of the coin-flip range.
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