Every story is a market. Every market has a price.
26 results for “hormuz”
June Hormuz recovery holds at 21.5% Tuesday morning: eight-times pre-crisis insurance and 232 stranded vessels price what diplomacy alone cannot fix.
Filed 5h ago
The June-end Hormuz recovery contract stands at 21.5% on Tuesday, down 5pp on the day, as daily transit calls sit at just 4% of the pre-crisis baseline with 28 days left.
Filed 7h ago
The Hormuz June-recovery contract holds at 21.5% as of 05:19 UTC Tuesday, steady from a 15.5¢ session floor, as operators await durable peace.
Filed 8h ago
At 21.5% as of 04:03 UTC Tuesday, the June-end Hormuz recovery contract has shed 6pp in 24 hours, pricing a structural logistics collapse that a ceasefire alone cannot fix.
Filed 10h ago
At 21.5% at 02:55 UTC Tuesday, the June-end Hormuz recovery market prices a 15x shipping gap ceasefire diplomacy alone cannot close.
Filed 11h ago
June Hormuz recovery at 21.5% as of 02:00 UTC Tuesday, down 6 points, as a physical shipping bottleneck offsets ceasefire momentum.
Filed 12h ago
The June-end Strait of Hormuz recovery contract sits at 22.5% late Monday, bounced from a 15.5¢ session floor, with traffic at 4% of pre-crisis levels leaving the IMF threshold unreachable.
Filed 14h ago
The Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery contract trades at 19.5% as of 22:56 UTC Monday, down 10 points on the day, as logistics barriers to shipping normalization persist despite the ceasefire holding.
Filed 15h ago
Hormuz's July-31 recovery contract sits at 47.5% YES as of 22:51 UTC Sunday, with logistics bottlenecks persisting seven weeks into the ceasefire.
Filed 2d ago
The July-31 Hormuz-recovery contract sat at 49% at 15:18 UTC Sunday — down 4.5pp — as ceasefire momentum fails to bridge the shipping-logistics gap.
Filed 2d ago
The July-31 Hormuz traffic-normalization contract sits at 48.5% as of 13:05 UTC Sunday, down 7 points from its 0.555 session open as the May MOU deadline expires unsigned.
Filed 2d ago
The July-31 Hormuz recovery contract prints 47.5% as of 05:56 UTC Sunday — down 9 points in 24 hours despite a tentative ceasefire MOU.
Filed 2d ago
July-31 Hormuz recovery at 47% YES on Sunday — down 10.5pp as the May ceasefire expires unsigned and mine-clearing timelines bite.
Filed 2d ago
The Hormuz blockade-lift market prices at 12.5% as of 17:13 UTC Saturday, down 61pp in 24 hours on $1.24M, with roughly 35 hours left before the May 31 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Filed 3d ago
The Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery market has declined to 33.5% as of 12:03 UTC May 30, down 4pp on the day, as traders price de-escalation and logistical normalization on entirely separate timelines.
Filed 3d ago
The blockade-lift contract collapsed to 18% as of 04:43 UTC Friday as Iran rejected Trump's conditions and NAVCENT kept the blockade active.
Filed 3d ago
The Hormuz blockade-lift contract sits at 52% as of 18:27 UTC Friday — up 24.5 points on the day but retracing sharply from an 86-cent intraday peak.
Filed 4d ago
Hormuz blockade-lift contract sits at 69.5¢ at 15:39 UTC Friday, up 45.5pp on the day, after Trump posted to Truth Social the U.S. blockade 'will now be lifted.'
Filed 4d ago
Hormuz June-recovery contract at 36% as of 05:17 UTC May 29, up 1.5pp — still pricing a gap between ceasefire and ships moving.
Filed 4d ago
At 31.5% as of 01:07 UTC May 29 — up +7pp in 24 hours on $873,594 of volume — the ceasefire-extension-by-May-31 contract holds post-MOU residual as Trump's approval awaits.
Filed 5d ago
The end-of-June Strait traffic-recovery contract sits at 32.5% as of 13:07 UTC May 28 — down 17pp from its May 24 coinflip and 11pp in the last 24 hours alone.
Filed 5d ago
The May 31 ceasefire-extension contract fell to 16.5% on May 28, shedding 25 points after Trump ruled out sanctions relief for Iran.
Filed 5d ago
Polymarket put the Project Freedom restart at 7.8% mid-afternoon UTC Tuesday, down from a 78.65% intraday high inside 24 hours on $443k of flow.
Filed 6d ago
Polymarket prices Trump's odds of declaring the Hormuz blockade lifted by May 31 at 27.5% as of May 25, down 37.5 points overnight.
Filed May 25, 2026
Polymarket put Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30 at 47.5% at 21:51 UTC Sunday, down 15.5 points in 24 hours on $666k.
Filed May 25, 2026
The contract paying out if Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes by May 31 last traded at 5.45%, down 3.65 points over 24 hours.
Filed May 22, 2026