Mine-Clearance Gap Drags Hormuz July YES to 46.5%
Hormuz July YES at 46.5% at 15:20 UTC Tuesday, down 5pp, as mine-clearance timelines and war-risk insurance hold recovery below even money.
The Strait of Hormuz July-recovery contract sat at 46.5% at 15:20 UTC Tuesday, extending a 24-hour slide from the session open of 51.5% as mine-clearance timelines and war-risk insurance costs keep the market well below the Iran peace-accord probability. Despite a signed diplomatic deal, structural supply-chain headwinds are doing the heavy lifting in pushing recovery odds below even money.
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Economics Mine-Clearance Timeline Anchors Hormuz July YES at 48.5%
Hormuz July 31 YES priced at 48.5% as of 03:30 UTC Tuesday, up 8pp overnight, as mine-clearance timelines cap the peace-accord catalyst.
5¢implied▼−3.0 ptsFiled June 23, 2026
Economics Mine-Clearance Clock Holds Hormuz July YES at Even Money
The Strait of Hormuz July 31 recovery market prices at 48.5% Tuesday morning, as a two-month mine-clearance estimate runs against a 38-day deadline.