Mine Clock Keeps Hormuz July 31 YES at Even Money — 50.5%
The July 31 Strait of Hormuz normalization contract priced at 50.5% at 15:02 UTC Monday after a +10pp session surge, sitting near even money while mine clearance timelines and elevated insurance costs do the work politics cannot.
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The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 hit 50.5% at 15:02 UTC Monday, up +10pp from 40.5% at session open—landing at near-even money and roughly 44 percentage points above the June 30 version, now at 6.5%. The Iran peace accord has been priced near-certain in Orakll's recent coverage, yet the July 31 deadline at only 50.5% is the market's direct verdict on what remains unresolved: not politics, but minesweepers.
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