Mine Clock Keeps Hormuz July 31 YES at Even Money — 50.5%
The July 31 Strait of Hormuz normalization contract priced at 50.5% at 15:02 UTC Monday after a +10pp session surge, sitting near even money while mine clearance timelines and elevated insurance costs do the work politics cannot.
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 hit 50.5% at 15:02 UTC Monday, up +10pp from 40.5% at session open—landing at near-even money and roughly 44 percentage points above the June 30 version, now at 6.5%. The Iran peace accord has been priced near-certain in Orakll's recent coverage, yet the July 31 deadline at only 50.5% is the market's direct verdict on what remains unresolved: not politics, but minesweepers.
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