July Hormuz Recovery Contract Falls to 47% as Ceasefire Expires Unsigned
July-31 Hormuz recovery at 47% YES on Sunday — down 10.5pp as the May ceasefire expires unsigned and mine-clearing timelines bite.
The Market · LiveTrade ↗YES probability · 24h change
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- $304k
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- $534k
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The Polymarket contract on whether Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal by July 31 fell to 47% YES as of 04:52 UTC Sunday — down 10.5 percentage points from the 57.5% 24-hour open — as the May diplomatic window closes without Trump signing a 60-day MOU. With Orakll reporting the near-term blockade-lift contract crashing to 12.5% on Friday, the July contract has crossed below 50% on $149,696 of 24-hour volume.
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