July Hormuz Recovery Contract Falls to 47% as Ceasefire Expires Unsigned
July-31 Hormuz recovery at 47% YES on Sunday — down 10.5pp as the May ceasefire expires unsigned and mine-clearing timelines bite.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
The Polymarket contract on whether Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal by July 31 fell to 47% YES as of 04:52 UTC Sunday — down 10.5 percentage points from the 57.5% 24-hour open — as the May diplomatic window closes without Trump signing a 60-day MOU. With Orakll reporting the near-term blockade-lift contract crashing to 12.5% on Friday, the July contract has crossed below 50% on $149,696 of 24-hour volume.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Economics Pentagon's Six-Month Mine Estimate Anchors Hormuz July YES at 48.5%
Hormuz July 31 YES holds at 48.5% as of 04:50 UTC Tuesday, up 8pp from Monday's open, as the Pentagon cites a six-month mine-clearance timeline.
Filed June 23, 2026
Economics Hormuz Recovery Contract Holds at 49% as Logistics Gap Anchors Half-Mast Pricing
The July-31 Hormuz-recovery contract sat at 49% at 15:18 UTC Sunday — down 4.5pp — as ceasefire momentum fails to bridge the shipping-logistics gap.
Filed May 31, 2026
Economics Post-War Traffic Peak Keeps Hormuz July YES Pinned at 48.5%
Hormuz July YES is at 48.5% as of 08:46 UTC Thursday; post-war traffic hit a weekend high but confirmed mines block the central channel from full recovery.