Hormuz Blockade-Lift Crashes 61pp to 12.5¢ as CENTCOM Contradicts Trump
The Hormuz blockade-lift market prices at 12.5% as of 17:13 UTC Saturday, down 61pp in 24 hours on $1.24M, with roughly 35 hours left before the May 31 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Market data temporarily unavailable
- Contract
- Condition
The Hormuz blockade-lift contract slid to 12.5¢ as of 17:13 UTC Saturday — down 61pp in 24 hours on $1.24M — erasing May 29's spike to 77.5¢. With roughly 35 hours to the May 31 11:59 PM ET deadline, traders price just 1-in-8 odds on a qualifying announcement.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Politics Trump Declares Iran Deal 'Complete'; June-15 Contract at 80%
The June-15 US-Iran peace deal contract is at 80.25% as of 01:48 UTC Monday after a 55.6-point surge in 24 hours.
Filed June 15, 2026
Politics Trump Declares Iran Deal 'Complete'; June-30 Contract Surges to 89.5%
The June-30 Iran deal contract hit 89.5% at 22:54 UTC Sunday as Trump declared the agreement complete and Pakistan's PM confirmed a June 19 signing ceremony in Switzerland.
Filed June 15, 2026
Politics June 14 Extension Leaps to 26% on Trump's Signing Pledge
The June 14 Iran ceasefire-extension contract jumped 15.5pp to 26% as of 16:24 UTC Sunday, reversing a slide toward the session floor with roughly 11.5 hours left to the midnight ET deadline.