Blockade-Lift Contract at 18¢ After Trump Spike Fully Unwinds
The blockade-lift contract collapsed to 18% as of 04:43 UTC Friday as Iran rejected Trump's conditions and NAVCENT kept the blockade active.
After spiking 66pp to a session high of 0.86 on Trump's Truth Social post, the Hormuz blockade-lift contract has fully reversed: it sits at 18% as of 04:43 UTC Friday, just off a session low of 0.175. As Orakll tracked, the retracement from 86¢ was already underway Thursday evening; overnight it erased the session opening of 0.225 and pressed lower. The market resolves YES only if Trump makes an official, qualifying announcement that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31 midnight ET.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Start a 7-day free trial to read on.
Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
Read next
Politics Iran June 7 Deal Contract Holds at 6% With MOU Still Unsigned
The June 7 Iran deal contract sits at 6% Tuesday as Trump's third MOU revision awaits Iranian sign-off with five days until the Sunday deadline.
6¢implied——Filed 4h ago
Politics Ceasefire Contract Bleeds to 12.5¢ as Trump Withholds MOU Sign-Off
As of 12:43 UTC May 30, the May-31 US–Iran ceasefire-extension contract hit 12.5¢—its 24-hour floor, down 14pp—as Trump stalls on approving the tentative 60-day MOU with the deadline 39 hours out.