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30 results for “us-iran”
The Hormuz recovery market holds at 47.5% YES at 02:40 UTC Saturday as 80 IMO-estimated mines block the transit threshold despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
Filed June 27, 2026
The US-Iran final-deal market clawed back to 23.5% Wednesday on YES dip buying off a 22.5% session low, as the enrichment stalemate persists.
Filed June 24, 2026
US-Iran August 31 nuclear deal market hit session-low 22.5% as of 17:45 UTC Wednesday, down 5pp as enrichment-duration disputes persist.
Filed June 24, 2026
The US-Iran final nuclear deal market sits at 22.5% as of 12:30 UTC Wednesday, down 6 percentage points in 24 hours on widening enrichment impasses.
Filed June 24, 2026
Hormuz July-31 YES climbs to 48.5% at 23:36 UTC Monday, up 9pp from 39.5%, as US-Iran Switzerland talks yield a maritime safe-passage mechanism.
Filed June 23, 2026
At 7.5% as of 2026-06-21T05:22 UTC, the Hormuz June 30 normalization contract prices near-certain failure — a six-month mine-clearance clock is overriding a signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding with nine days to the deadline.
Filed June 21, 2026
The June 21 Iran-meeting contract is at 92.9% Sunday morning, up 39.85 points in 24 hours on Pakistan's in-person Burgenstock confirmation.
Filed June 21, 2026
The US-Iran June 21 meeting contract hit 94.05% at 22:54 UTC Saturday — up 86.75 points on the day — as Iran's delegation arrived in Switzerland for Burgenstock talks.
Filed June 21, 2026
The June 21 Iran diplomatic-meeting contract reached 87.1% Saturday evening as Pakistan confirmed Burgenstock talks with Witkoff and Araghchi both en route to Switzerland.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US–Iran meeting market hit 84.05% as of 19:36 UTC Saturday, up 69.5pp in 24 hours as Pakistan confirmed Sunday Burgenstock talks.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's 'end all enrichment by June 30' contract is at 4.5% as of 17:39 UTC Saturday, down 38pp in 24 hours, as the signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding commits only to downblending — not the formal zero-enrichment pledge the contract requires.
Filed June 20, 2026
US-Iran June 21 meeting market at 85.65% as of 17:32 UTC Saturday, with Witkoff, Kushner, and Araghchi all headed to Burgenstock for talks.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US-Iran meeting contract reached 81.65% at 14:26 UTC Saturday, up 64.25pp in 24 hours, as Iranian FM Araghchi joined Witkoff en route to Switzerland.
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 21 US–Iran in-person meeting contract hit 62.45% at 13:31 UTC Saturday as Witkoff departed for Switzerland to pursue a qualifying face-to-face session.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's July 31 enrichment-halt contract sits at 13.5% Saturday, down 39 points in 24 hours, as the signed US-Iran MOU mandates downblending — not a centrifuge halt.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's zero-enrichment pledge sits at 5.5% Saturday morning, down 49 percentage points in 24 hours after the June 18 US-Iran MOU committed to stockpile downblending only, not ending enrichment.
Filed June 20, 2026
The US-Iran June 21 diplomatic meeting contract reached 46.75% at 04:08 UTC Saturday, up 19.25pp on the day after a session swinging from a 5.95% floor to a 64.2% peak on Iran FM's pledge of talks 'in the coming days.'
Filed June 20, 2026
The June 30 US–Iran meeting contract hit 76.1% at 23:00 UTC Friday — up 18pp in 30 minutes — after Washington called today's Burgenstock cancellation a delay.
Filed June 20, 2026
Iran's enrichment-end contract is at 23.5% as of 20:06 UTC Friday, down 31 points from Thursday's 0.545 open, as the June 18 MOU commits Tehran to downblending — not cessation — of its enriched stockpile.
Filed June 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz June-30 recovery contract has fallen to 9.5% as of 07:25 UTC on June 19, down 9pp in the 24-hour window, as mine-clearance timelines overwhelm the US-Iran peace deal's momentum.
Filed June 19, 2026
The uranium-enrichment compliance market priced at 69% at 02:17 UTC Friday as the signed US-Iran MOU requires only stockpile downblending — no formal zero-enrichment pledge.
Filed June 19, 2026
Polymarket's June 19 US-Iran diplomatic-meeting contract fell to 21% as of 01:21 UTC Friday, down 41 points on the session.
Filed June 19, 2026
Iran's zero-enrichment compliance contract dropped to 45.5% as of 15:10 UTC Wednesday, now 54 points below the 99.85% US-Iran peace deal.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's uranium-enrichment compliance contract sits at 53.5% as of 14:28 UTC Wednesday, up 7.5 points in 24 hours, as the US-Iran MOU defers all enrichment specifics to the 60-day negotiation window ahead.
Filed June 17, 2026
Polymarket prices the Iran accord text-release at 29.5% as of 13:17 UTC Wednesday after CNN published the 14-point draft but the White House and Tehran both disputed its authenticity.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's enrichment-end contract hit 56.5% at 12:00 UTC Wednesday, up 17 points on the session, still 43.35pp below the near-certain US-Iran peace deal at 99.85%.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's enrichment-compliance contract priced at 47.5% at 10:08 UTC Wednesday, 52.35 points below the US-Iran peace deal at 99.85%, as the framework explicitly allows enrichment to continue for nonmilitary purposes.
Filed June 17, 2026
Iran's enrichment compliance market prints at 49.5% as of 08:10 UTC Wednesday, June 17—50 points below the 99.85% US-Iran peace framework—pricing a precise gap between deal-signed and pledge-made.
Filed June 17, 2026
The 'Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment?' contract sits at 17.35% as of 07:45 UTC Wednesday, down 9.15pp on the session, as the US-Iran deal crystallises around a 15-year suspension rather than US consent to continued enrichment.
Filed June 17, 2026
Polymarket's Iran enrichment-end contract is at 59.5% Wednesday morning—40 percentage points below the US-Iran peace deal now priced at 99.95%.
Filed June 17, 2026