Iran Enrichment-End Surges to 59.5%, Still 40 Points Below Near-Certain Peace Deal
Polymarket's Iran enrichment-end contract is at 59.5% Wednesday morning—40 percentage points below the US-Iran peace deal now priced at 99.95%.
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Polymarket's contract on whether Iran publicly pledges to end all uranium enrichment by June 30 sits at 59.5% as of 06:04 UTC Wednesday—up 20 points from a 39.5% session open. As Orakll reported at 03:47 UTC, Trump's "15-year suspension" claim drove an overnight surge to 51.5%; the contract has since climbed further, with the 24-hour session high reaching 0.660. The companion US-Iran peace deal (June 30 contract) is priced at 99.95%—a 40-point gap that encodes how far the signed MOU falls from the explicit enrichment-end pledge this contract requires.
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