Mines and War-Risk Insurance Keep Hormuz June Recovery at 20.5%
The Hormuz June recovery contract holds at 20.5% as of Wednesday morning, pricing 1-in-5 odds on shipping normalization beating the June 30 deadline.
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The Strait of Hormuz June-end recovery contract held at 20.5% as of 08:36 UTC Wednesday — 1pp below its 0.215 session open — with the 24-hour range sweeping from a 0.195 low to a 0.215 high. Despite $13.1M in total volume and a ceasefire that continues to hold, traders have settled on a low-probability read: the gap between diplomatic de-escalation and the IMF Portwatch 60-transit 7-day moving average the contract requires is too wide to close before June 30.
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