OpenAI's Own Hedge Cuts IPO Odds 30 Points to 46.5%
The OpenAI IPO-by-December 2026 contract fell to 46.5% at 17:10 UTC Wednesday, off a 0.765 session high, after the company's own S-1 filing warned the listing 'may be a while.'
The YES contract on an OpenAI IPO by December 31 sat at 46.5% at 17:10 UTC Wednesday — down 30 points from a 0.765 session high reached at 11:36 UTC and off 24 points over the past 24 hours — after the company's own S-1 filing language erased the bullish case that had driven it there. The $24,167 in 24-hour volume reflects a market that spent Wednesday morning buying the IPO story and the afternoon selling its fine print.
¶Why now
Orakll Subscriber
The rest of this story is for subscribers
The tape reads, the counter-view, and the priced-in math are for subscribers. Subscribe to read on.
Quant Dashboard
See where liquidity is positioning
Screener, order-book depth, correlation heatmap, and whale concentration — live.
Agent tokens
Wire your trading agent in 30 seconds
One URL + Bearer token into Claude Code, Cursor, or ChatGPT. Seventeen read tools.
Full articles
Read every story in full
The complete tape read, counter-view, and priced-in math on every report.
Read next
Finance Altman's RSI Escape Hatch Caps OpenAI IPO Recovery at 49%
The OpenAI December IPO contract sits at 49% as of 23:45 UTC Wednesday — down 23 points overnight — after Altman's RSI escape hatch stripped the December window of conviction.
23¢implied▲+4.0 ptsFiled June 11, 2026
Finance OpenAI's September IPO Target Trims Anthropic's Edge to 73¢
Anthropic's IPO-first contract sits at 73% as of Wednesday morning, 13 points off Tuesday's post-filing peak, as OpenAI's own accelerated September timeline draws fresh counter-bets.
