Hormuz Recovery Hits 9.5% Session Low as Two Bounces Fail

Polymarket's June-end Hormuz traffic-normalization contract has fallen to a new session low of 9.5% as of 02:05 UTC Monday — down 5 percentage points from the 14.5% open — as the structural barriers documented in prior Orakll coverage at 11.5% continue to outweigh diplomatic progress. The session did not descend in a straight line: the contract dipped to 10.5% around 19:11 UTC Sunday, then staged two failed recovery attempts — reaching 13.5%, sustained from 22:26 through 23:15 UTC Sunday, and then partially recovering to 12.5% from 00:04 through 00:53 UTC Monday — before the final slide to the current 9.5% session low. With 22 days remaining to the June 30 deadline, the required IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls looks structurally unreachable.

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