Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $1.3M volume
Why it resolved
Enrique Peñalosa failed to consolidate right-wing support and was eclipsed by Abelardo de la Espriella. The market priced in Peñalosa's candidacy at ~13¢ in early 2025, but the price collapsed to ~3¢ by mid-October 2025 as De la Espriella emerged as the unified right-wing candidate, and continued drifting toward 0¢ as De la Espriella consolidated momentum through May–June 2026, ultimately defeating leftist Iván Cepeda 49.66% to 48.70% in the June 21 runoff.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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