US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
June 18, 2026 · $3.7M volume
Why it resolved
On June 14, 2026 (~5:30 PM ET, early June 15 UTC), Pakistan's PM Sharif announced that the US and Iran had reached a framework agreement to permanently end military operations on all fronts, with an official signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. The market had already begun pricing the deal over the prior week but ran decisively from 65¢ to 96¢ (+32pp) on June 15 00:00 UTC as the formal announcement locked in the outcome — a clean reaction to confirmed news.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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