Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
June 24, 2026 · $2.5M volume
Why it resolved
Abelardo de la Espriella won the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff on June 21, 2026, defeating leftist Iván Cepeda 49.66% to 48.70%, making Mauricio Cárdenas ineligible. The market had already priced in Cárdenas' elimination by August 2025 (50¢ → 12¢ on Aug 28) when right-wing consolidation efforts coalesced around other candidates rather than Cárdenas, and then drifted toward 0¢ as the race proceeded without him as a viable contender.
Orakll Subscriber
Unlock the full causal record
Premium reveals the sourced news events that drove this resolution and the per-market reliability read — was the market well-priced, and when did it know.
For agents: these are labelled resolution records — every meaningful market that resolved, tagged with why (decisive cause + sourced causal events) and a reliability score. That's ground truth plus causality, the data layer that lets a trading or research agent backtest its theses against what actually moved markets — served by the list_resolutions and explain_resolution MCP tools.
Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
Agent corpus
Built to be machine-read
The same labelled records power the resolution MCP tools for your agent.